DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

September corn closed up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was up 3 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed down 10 cents and November soybeans were down 9 3/4 cents. September Kansas City wheat closed down 11 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 8 1/2 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 8 1/4 cents.

The September U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.149 at 96.260. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 5.21 points at 26,722.64. August gold is up $20.60 at $1,409.90, September silver is up $0.07 at $15.26 and September copper is down $0.0260 at $2.6620. August crude oil is down $2.76 at $56.33, August heating oil is down $0.0646, August RBOB is down $0.0586 and August natural gas is down $0.026.

Corn:

December corn closed up 3 1/2 cents at $4.26 Tuesday, a quiet day of lower-volume trading ahead of this week's Fourth of July holiday. There may still be more selling in store for corn after noncommercials were caught net long near the top of the move before USDA surprised traders Friday with its estimate of 91.7 million planted acres. As that number gets tossed around, many are agreeing that it was a poor estimate, but also know the market won't have a revised planting estimate until Aug. 12. Late Monday, USDA said 56% of corn was rated good to excellent, the lowest since 2012. The poorest crop conditions are found in Missouri and the eastern Midwest. One source of possible support for December corn is at $4.06, which is the old high from January. On Wednesday, most U.S. grain futures, including corn, will close at 12:05 p.m. CDT and resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CDT Friday. Weekly export sales will be released Friday morning but expectations are low since U.S. prices increased in May. Fundamentally, there is still a wide range of uncertainty for corn prices in a neutral-to-bullish direction. Technically, the trend in cash corn has turned sideways after hitting the highest prices in five years. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.99 Monday, 17 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, August crude oil is trading down $2.76, even after CNBC.com reported OPEC and other producers agreed to extend supply cuts until March 2020.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 9 3/4 cents at $8.98 3/4 Tuesday, continuing to sag lower in spite of recent bullish news. Friday's planting estimate of 80.0 million acres from USDA, and weekend news from President Donald Trump that China is willing to talk again and will buy large amounts of agricultural products, should have helped soybean prices trade higher, but in both cases, traders have reasons to wait for more evidence. Aside from the news, U.S. ending soybean stocks remain headed for a total above 1 billion bushels in 2018-19 as exports continue to come in below USDA's estimated export pace. As with corn, the market does not yet have a good planting estimate for soybeans and that injects uncertainty into a fundamental outlook that is otherwise bearish. Late Monday, USDA said 54% of soybean crops were rated good to excellent, the lowest in seven years. The seven-day forecast expects heavy rain amounts in the northwestern Midwest and moderate-to-heavy amounts in the eastern Midwest where crop conditions are suffering. Technically, the trend is back to sideways in cash soybeans as prices have been unable to trade above their one-year high at $8.41. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.13 Monday, 77 cents below the August contract.

Wheat:

September KC wheat fell lower a fourth consecutive day, ending down 11 1/2 cents at $4.32 1/2 Tuesday, pressured by improved harvest progress. Late Monday, USDA said 30% of U.S. winter wheat was harvested, up from 15% the previous week, but down from the five-year average of 48%. The southwestern U.S. Plains showed more progress and 28% of Kansas wheat was finished. The seven-day forecast is favorable for more harvest in the southwestern Plains, but rain will hinder progress in the eastern Midwest. To the north, spring wheat crops received a 75% good-to-excellent rating from USDA, the same high rating as a week ago. Heavy rain is expected in spring wheat areas from Montana to Wisconsin the next seven days. Outside of North America, there are no major threats to world wheat crops outside of a few limited concerns. The largely favorable international report for crops is keeping U.S. wheat prices under pressure and Tuesday's news that Egypt bought 60,000 tons of wheat from Romania was another reminder of the stiff competition the U.S. faces for exports. Technically, the trend is currently sideways for cash SRW wheat and down for HRW and HRS wheats. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.23 Monday, 21 cents below the September contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.95, down from its highest prices in four years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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