Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern for the U.S. with areas of heavy rain and severe storms, poor weather in western Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WAVES OF RAIN FOR MIDWEST

Recent rainfall has been too heavy in a lot of the Midwest, slowing down or halting planting. This week stays active with a strong front moving through Tuesday with a line of showers and thunderstorms that may turn severe over eastern areas. Another system goes through for Wednesday and Thursday that may also have severe weather. It will also bring some colder air into the region, but frosts are not expected. Temperatures will likely waffle a bit through next week as the pattern remains active with fronts and systems. However, these systems are less likely to contain widespread heavy rain as they come from the northwest.

QUIETER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL WEEKEND

Widespread thunderstorms and severe weather went through the Central and Southern Plains on Monday but skipped over the drier southwestern areas. Some isolated showers will pop up for the rest of the week, but many areas will remain dry, which will help open some planting windows. Wheat conditions in the southwest still are not great, even after some decent rainfall over the weekend. But the southern storm track may be more active starting this weekend, continuing through next week, which may promote better rainfall chances there.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is settled in the Northern Plains and is bringing rainfall to most of the region through Wednesday, including some heavy amounts for the driest areas in eastern Montana. The rain will keep any fieldwork slow. Additional fronts will follow afterward through next week but contain fewer showers as planting windows will open back up again. Temperatures will waffle around as these fronts come and go.

MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

A couple of fronts will move through the Delta this week with more chances for widespread showers, thunderstorms, and potential for severe weather. Another will go through early next week as the pattern remains active across the region. The active weather will ensure good soil moisture for the next week but may be too wet in some areas for planting. The region continues to see good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions, however.

HEAVY RAIN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moved into the Canadian Prairies on Monday and is bringing areas of heavy and widespread rainfall through Wednesday to most of the region outside of northwestern Alberta which is drier. Heavy rain is falling in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan, which is still under significant drought and could use it. The rain will produce significant planting delays, shortening the windows for this year's crop. The good news is that this may be the last system with widespread heavy rain, as the storm track will be more from the northwest for a while. The rain should be more favorable than detrimental.

FRONT EXACERBATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Recent heavy rain over Rio Grande do Sul in the south has produced catastrophic flooding over the last week. The front responsible for the incredible rain has moved south but will shift back north again on Wednesday and likely waffle around the state yet again next week. Flooding, mudslides, and crop damage are all putting a damper on what was a pretty good crop season and making for massive delays in winter wheat planting. Safrinha corn in the central will continue to be very dry and hot as well. Southern growing areas may catch some of the rain from the front later next week.

FROST POTENTIAL FOR ARGENTINA

A front shifted back south into Argentina over the weekend, but much of the heavy rain has been east into Uruguay. A system will shove the front back north into Paraguay and Brazil on Wednesday. Colder and drier conditions will follow that. That may be able to increase corn and soybean harvest but may mean widespread frosts for any immature crops. The drier pattern lasts through at least next week.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

A system that moved back into western Europe over the weekend with more unfortunate rainfall for areas that have been mostly too wet will dip southeast through the continent over the next couple of days with drier conditions taking over. Cooler temperatures are going to be a feature for those in the east, but frosts are not in the forecast. Another system will move into western areas early next week and could settle in there for a while, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

It is still very dry in most of the primary wheat areas of the Black Sea region. That has made smooth planting progress for corn and sunflowers but threatens the crop with building dryness. A front will slide through with little precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday, but frosts are going to be common across northern areas of the region. Some damage may occur, though the coldest air will be over less developed wheat. The pattern does look a little more active this weekend into next week, but currently, the forecast is for streaks of lighter rain, and not the turnaround of moderate to heavy rain that the region needs.

MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system may bring scattered showers to New South Wales in the east later this week, which will help with winter wheat and canola establishment. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn't been all that great. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.