Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.07 lower at $65.81. The spot-month contract built on the bearish reversal from the previous week, moving to a new 4-week low of $65.51. This confirms a move to a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend with initial support at $61.79. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the recent high of $72.83.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 3.35cts lower at $2.1763. Bearish trend change signals are more subtle in distillates than crude oil, with the previous week's lower close establishing a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. Confirmation of a new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend would be a move to a new 4-week low below $2.1087. Next support is at $1.9628, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $2.3069.

Gasoline: RBOB gasoline futures market closed 3.80cts lower at $2.1434. Similar to distillates, the spot-month RBOB gasoline contract built on the previous week's bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80% last week. A new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend would be confirmed with a move to a new 4-week low below $2.0612.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 3.9cts lower at $1.462. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) side4ways trend between support at $1.400 and resistance at $1.510.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 2.3cts higher at $2.962. The market remains in a slowly building secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Next resistance is at $3.084, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.994 through the low of $2.522.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.62cts lower at $0.7200. Despite another lower weekly close, cash propane remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend. The market is consolidating below the recent highs of $0.8275 and $0.8138 and above the interim low of $0.6700.

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