Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source; DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.41, down 1 cent for the week. Cash SRW wheat looks to be in a sideways trend between resistance at the high weekly close of $4.63 (week of February 26) and low weekly close of $4.21 (week of March 26). A breakout of this range would confirm the direction of the next trend.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.89 1/4, up 3/4 cent for the week. While the contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend could still be classified as up, July Chicago wheat is in a sideways trading pattern between its recent high of $5.31 3/4 (week of February 26) and low of $4.59 (week of March 26).

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.56, down 10 cents for the week. Cash HRW remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. Initial support is at the previous low weekly close of $4.26 (week of March 26), then $4.17 and $4.00. The latter prices mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels respectively of the previous uptrend from $2.90 through the $4.86 high.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.15, down 10 1/2 cents for the week. Though technically July KC wheat could still be considered in Wave 5 of a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend, for now it is moving in a wide ranging sideways pattern between its previous high of $5.65 and recent low of $4.75 1/2.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.06, up 12 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend for cash spring wheat could still be considered sideways. Though it has moved outside its previous range from $5.82 to $6.05, it remains within the wider range between $6.19 (close the week of November 6, 2017) and $5.62 (week of March 26). A breakout in either direction should establish the next trend.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.30 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents for the week. While the contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend, Wave 1 quickly tested resistance between $6.38 1/2 and $6.55 3/4 with last week's high of $6.47. If Wave 2 has begun, nearly a full retracement of Wave from the low of $5.88 1/4 could be seen.

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