Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $69.35, up $3.57 on the monthly chart. For now, the market's major (long-term) trend could still be classified as up. However, February saw monthly stochastics establish a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, indicating the trend could soon turn down. The subsequent rally in March has the spot-month contract in position to post a possible double-top pattern. However, if it moves beyond the previous high of $71.28 (January 2018), the next upside target is at $77.75.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $64.94, up $3.30 on the monthly chart. Similar to Brent crude, the spot-month WTI contract is testing the January 2018 high of $66.66. While the market could establish a double-top in April, a move to a new high would indicate an extension of the major (long-term) uptrend to next resistance at $70.44.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $2.0210, up 10.74cts on the monthly chart. Despite the higher monthly close the market remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. However, some bullish momentum was seen at the end of the month, and with the market's forward curve in backwardation, the spot-month contract could test the January high of $2.1431 during April. Technical resistance is pegged at $3.1094, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $3.3700 through the low of $0.8487.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $2.0206, up 26.29 cents on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend of the futures market remains up with the spot-month contract above the January high of $1.9530. Next resistance is pegged at $2.1882, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.4789 through the low of $0.8975.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.454, down 1.5cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend could still be classified as up after the market posted a new 4-month high for the second consecutive month. However, the lower monthly close was not bullish and could lead to renewed selling interest in April.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $2.733, up 6.6cts on the monthly chart. The market remains in a wide-ranging major (long-term) sideways trend with support still at $2.521. Monthly stochastics are still neutral-to-bearish.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.6625, up 1.75cts on its monthly chart. Despite its higher monthly close the market remains in a major (long-term) downtrend. Support is between $0.6162 and $0.4948, prices that mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $0.2525 through the high of $0.9800.

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