Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) closed at $3.50 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents for the week. Despite Thursday's sharp gains that led to a higher weekly close, the NCI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. That being said, a test of the recent high weekly close of $3.53 1/4 is possible, and if seen would establish a double-top formation to go along with the recent bearish crossover by weekly stochastics. Initial support is at $3.40 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.00 1/2 through the high of $3.53 1/4.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The July 2018 contract (analyzed for DTN Strategy purposes) closed 10 1/2 cents higher at $3.96 1/4. Despite Thursday's sharp rally that led to a higher weekly close, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. The contract was able to rally off its recent test of support near $3.77 1/2, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.62 through the high of $4.02 3/4. Resistance is at the $4.02 3/4 high.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2018 contract closed 12 1/4 cents higher at $4.11 1/2. While the market still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, Thursday's spike rally was led by increased commercial buying indicated by a weakening carry in the new-crop forward curve. This could push the contract through its previous high of $4.12 toward a test of next resistance near $4.17 3/4. The latter price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.29 1/2 through the low of $3.79 1/4.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI, national average cash price) closed at $9.67 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents for the week. Despite the higher weekly close, due to Thursday's strong rally, the NSI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. Resistance is at the recent high weekly close of $9.71 1/4.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The May contract closed at $10.44 3/4, up 16 1/2 cents for the week. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways-to-down, with support at the 4-week low of $10.09 1/4 and resistance the 4-week high of $10.82 1/2.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2018 contract closed at $10.47 3/4, up 21 1/4 cents for the week. The contract posted a bullish outside range last week, normally a chart pattern that would suggest a move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. However, weekly stochastics are already above the overbought level of 80% with the most recent signal a bearish crossover the week of March 19.

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