Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.18 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. The SR.X is testing resistance at $4.18 1/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.02 1/4 through the low of $3.44. The 50% retracement level is up near $4.29 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.74 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents for the week. While July Chicago wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, the minor (short-term) trend on its daily chart is down. Initial support is at $3.65 1/2, the low from February 5. Daily stochastics (short-term momentum study) are bearish just below the overbought level of 80%.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.23 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents for the week. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looks to have come to an end last week with the HW.X testing resistance at $4.22 1/4. Weekly stochastics posted a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, signaling bearish momentum could start to build. Initial support is between $3.91 3/4 and $3.72 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.97 1/4, up 3 cents for the week. July Kansas City wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly chart and a minor (short-term) downtrend on its daily chart. The contract is testing initial minor support at $4.97 1/2, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $4.40 1/4 through the recent high of $5.15. Next support is at $4.86 1/2, the 38.2% retracement level. A test of the latter could put the contract in position to establish a short-term island top.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.85 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents for the week. The SW.X is in a secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. Initial resistance is at the recent high weekly close of $6.05 1/4 (week of January 2) with support the previous low weekly close of $5.82 1/4 (week of December 4).

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.29 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents for the week. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be sideways-to-up. Last week saw Sept Minneapolis post a new 4-week high of $6.39 with initial resistance up at $6.44.

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