Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) closed at $3.20 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents for the week. The NCI resumed its seasonal uptrend last week, pushing through initial resistance at $3.19. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.57 1/4 through the low of $2.95 1/4. The 50% retracement level is up at $3.26 1/4, though weekly stochastics are already above the overbought level of 80%.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The July 2018 contract (analyzed for DTN Strategy purposes) closed 6 1/4 cents higher at $3.69. The contract still looks to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, needing a move to a new 4-week high beyond $3.71 to confirm. Next resistance is at $3.79, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.34 1/4 through the recent low of $3.62. National average basis (NCI minus futures) versus the July contract (for DTN Strategy purposes) strengthened by a penny last week to 48 1/4 cents under.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2018 contract closed 5 1/4 cents higher at $3.85 3/4. Dec corn tested and rallied off its previous low, establishing a double-bottom and indicating its secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. Initial resistance is at its 4-week high of $3.88, then $3.91. The latter marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.29 1/2 through the low of $3.79 1/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish above the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI, national average cash price) closed at $9.09, up 19 1/4 cents for the week. The weekly close-only chart for the NSI remains trendless, with resistance at the recent high weekly close of $9.17 (week of December 4) and support the low weekly close of $8.81 1/4 (week of December 18). A close outside this range should reset the secondary (intermediate-term) trend.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The May contract (analyzed for DTN Strategy purposes) closed at $9.88 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents for the week. The May contract is in a minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart. Last Friday's high of $9.94 was a test of resistance at $9.96 1/2, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $10.37 1/4 (December 5) through the low of $9.55 3/4 (January 12). Next resistance is at the 61.8% retracement level of $10.06. Daily stochastics are nearing the overbought level of 80%. National average basis (NSI minus futures) strengthened by 2 3/4 cents last week to $79 1/2 cents under the May last Friday.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2018 contract closed at $9.96, up 12 1/2 cents for the week. Similar to old-crop futures, new-crop November looks to be in the latter stages of a minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart. Last Friday's high of $10.01 1/2 was a test of resistance at $10.02 1/4, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $10.24 (December 5) through the low of $9.67 1/2 (January 12). Daily stochastics have climbed above the overbought level of 80%, likely limiting much of an extension of the uptrend and in position for a bearish crossover.

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