Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.80 1/4, down 16 1/2 cents for the week. Last week's close was below the low weekly close of Wave A (first wave) at $3.81 1/4. This would indicate the recent sell-off is actually Wave C (third wave) of a standard 3-wave downtrend. Though the SR.X is below retracement support at $3.81 1/2, it is still in position to reestablish bullish weekly stochastics over the coming weeks. The most recent signal by stochastics was a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% meaning cash SRW wheat could soon establish a new 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.45 3/4, down 18 1/2 cents for the week. July Chicago wheat followed the previous week's spike reversal with a bearish outside week including a new contract low of $4.44 1/2. While weekly stochastics indicate a sharply oversold situation, July Chicago could see continued pressure over the weeks ahead.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.61, down 9 1/2 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close cash HRW wheat remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. Initial resistance remains at $3.71, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.73 3/4 through the low of $3.39 1/4. The 38.2% retracement level is up at $3.90 3/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $4.47, down 19 1/2 cents for the week. July Kansas City wheat followed the previous week's spike reversal with a bearish outside week including a new contract low of $4.46 1/2. While weekly stochastics indicate a sharply oversold situation, July Kansas City could see continued pressure over the weeks ahead.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.82 1/4, down 17 3/4 cents for the week. The SW.X remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 5-wave uptrend. Wave 1 now looks to be the small move from $5.71 1/4 (week of September 11) through the high of $5.84 3/4 (week of September 18). Wave 2 saw the SW.X fall back to a low of $5.72 1/4 (week of October 9) completing a typical nearly 100% retracement of Wave 1. Wave 3 peaked at $6.19 (week of November 6), with Wave 4 testing support at $5.82 1/2, the 76.4% retracement level of the initial low through Wave 3 high.

HRS Wheat (New-Crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.21 1/4, down 10 cents for the week. A long-range view of new-crop Minneapolis spring wheat shows the contract to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is projected to reach a low near $5.98.

To track my thoughts on the marketthroughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .