Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.00 1/2, down 8 cents for the week. The NCI.X moved to a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. Last week's close was below the previous low weekly close of $3.02, setting the stage for a test of $2.85 1/4, the close from the week of August 22, 2016.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 8.25cts lower at $3.44 1/2. The contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend as it posted a new weekly low close. Next major (long-term) support is at the low monthly close of $3.15 1/2 from August 2016.

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Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2018 contract closed 7.00cts lower at $3.91 1/4. December 2018 corn's secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-down. Support is at $3.88 3/4, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous secondary uptrend from the contract low of $3.76 1/4 through the high of $4.29 1/2.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.98 3/4, down 24 cents for the week. The NSI.X is consolidating between a downtrend connecting the highs of $9.62 1/2 (week of July 10) and $9.22 3/4 (week of October 9) and an uptrend connecting the lows of $8.40 (week of June 19) and $8.60 1/2 (week of August 14). Weekly stochastics are neutral, though the most recent secondary signal was a bullish crossover below the oversold 20% level the week of June 5.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $9.78 3/4, down 21 1/2 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be up, the contract posted a bearish inside week last week. However, weekly stochastics remain bullish meaning the market should be able to rebuild momentum. If not, secondary support remains at $9.60 1/2 and $9.40.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2018 contract closed at $9.98, down 12 1/2 cents for the week. Despite posting a bearish inside week the contract remains in a standard 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Theoretically the peak of the next wave, Wave 3, should occur above the Wave 1 high of $10.28 3/4.

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