Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.08, up 5 3/4 cents for the week. The NCI.X looks to have established a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on its weekly close-only chart. Cash corn was able to rally off its test of support at $3.00, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.85 1/4 through the high weekly close of $3.48. Meanwhile, weekly stochastics posted a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, indicating a bullish change in momentum should be seen.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 1.75cts higher at $3.55 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is nearing an upturn as Dec corn posted a spike reversal last week. While the contract closed well above its new low of $3.44 1/4, weekly stochastics were unable to establish a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at Friday's close. However, it is expected to be seen this coming week, as long as the futures contract doesn’t post a large enough rally to pull stochastics above 20%. There is also a chance Dec corn slips back to test last week's low before finally confirming a new uptrend.

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Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2018 contract closed 2.75cts higher at $3.96 1/2. New-crop corn's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. However, did post a solid rally off last week's low of $3.86 1/4 before closing back above support at $3.88 3/4. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the uptrend that established the contracts lifetime range (so far) from $3.76 1/4 through $4.29 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain bearish above the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could see renewed pressure.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.86, up 2 1/4 cents for the week. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the NSI.X posting a bullish outside range last week. Support at $8.68 3/4 looks to have held, indicating cash soybeans could begin to see increased bullish momentum. Given the previous high near $9.62 1/2, the upside target for Wave 3 (of a 5-wave uptrend) would be $9.76.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $9.49 1/2, up 5 cents for the week. The contract looks to have finished Wave 2 of a standard 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, setting the stage for Wave 3 that would imply a solid contra-seasonal rally. Support is at the 4-week low of $9.21.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2018 contract closed at $9.72 1/2 up 13 cents for the week. New-crop November beans look to have completed Wave 2 (retracement wave) of a standard 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. The contract held support at $9.48 1/4, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of Wave 1 from $9.23 1/2 through the high of $10.28 3/4.

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