Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.45 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents for the week. Cash corn remains an interesting market, showing a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend dating back to August 2016 when the NCI.X posted a low of $2.73. Weekly stochastics have climbed above the overbought level of 80% as the NCI.X approaches resistance at $3.51 3/4. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.00 1/2 through the August 2016 low.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The July contract closed 3.75cts lower at $3.84. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Resistance is at $3.98 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $4.56 1/2 through the low of $3.40 1/4. If the contract breaks through this resistance, the next target is the 67% level up at $4.17 3/4. Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report* showed noncommercial interests reducing holding net-long futures position of 85,258 contracts as of June 13, a switch of 117,717 contracts from the previous week.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 4.00cts lower at $4.02. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up with initial resistance at $4.07 1/2, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.22 3/4 through the low of $3.58 1/2. The 4-week high is at the spike peak of $4.09. A move through either of these marks could set the stage for a possible test of the secondary high of $4.22 3/4.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.74 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents for the week. Cash soybeans' secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up following the previous week's bullish price gap between $8.55 and $8.56 1/4. This in combination with the previous bearish price gap between $8.59 1/2 and $8.55 established a bullish island reversal. Also, weekly stochastics established a secondary (confirming) bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. Initial resistance is at $9.08 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.12 through the low of $8.45 3/4.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The July contract closed at $9.39, down 2 1/2 cents for the week. Old-crop soybeans still look to be in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with initial resistance at $9.57 1/2. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.13 through the low of $9.09 1/2.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $9.50, up 1 3/4 cents for the week. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be up, still needing confirmation of a new 4-week high above $9.59 3/4. Next resistance is at $9.64 1/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $10.43 through the low of $9.15 1/2. The 50% retracement level is up at $9.79 1/4.

*The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, June 13.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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