Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.96 lower at $50.80. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend as the spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low of $49.71. With weekly stochastics still bearish the market should fall to next support at $47.96 and $46.42, the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $27.10 through the high of $58.37.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.81 lower at $47.97. Similar to Brent, WTI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend as the spot-month contract posted a new 4-week low of $47.01. This continues to test initial support at $48.35, a price that marks thee 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $55.24. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $44.09 with the 50% at $40.65. Weekly stochastics are bearish.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 1.09cts lower at $1.4976. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down as the spot-month contract moved to a new 4-week low of $1.4758. Next support is at $1.4597, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.7647.

Gasoline: The spot-month RBOB gasoline contract closed 0.59ct higher at $1.6048. The secondary (intermediate-term) is sideways between support at the 4-week low of $1.4734 and resistance the 4-week high of $1.7257. This was the range for the week of February 27 as the April contract moved into the role of spot-month holding a large contango to the expiring March contract.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.6cts higher at $1.563. The market is in position to establish a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend as last week's high equaled the 4-week high of $1.563. Weekly stochastics are growing more bullish, moving away from the oversold level of 20%.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 12.8cts higher at $3.076. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, the continued rally by the spot-month contract is a solid Wave B (second wave) of a 3-wave downtrend. Resistance is between $3.084 and $3.258, prices that mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of Wave A from $3.994 through $2.522.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 0.37ct lower at $0.5313. The secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend looks to be nearing its end as cash propane holds support at $0.5281. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.3775 through the high $0.9100. Weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%, setting the stage for a bullish crossover.

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