Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Wheat Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.06 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents for the week. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remain down. Resistance is at the previous high weekly close of $4.12 1/4, while support is at $3.89 1/2 then $3.78 1/4. These prices mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $3.44 and the recent high weekly close.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.68 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-up with resistance at the 4-week high of $4.88 3/4. A test of this resistance could pull weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%, setting the stage for a possible bearish crossover.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.75, up 18 1/2 cents for the week. Cash HRW resumed its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, posting a new 4-week high weekly close. However, weekly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80%, possibly limiting new buying interest.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.83 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents for the week. The contract resumed its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend last week, posting a bullish outside range. The upside target remains $4.96 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.70 through the low of $4.23 1/2. A test of this resistance should pull weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%, setting the stage for a potential bearish crossover marking the end of the uptrend and beginning of the next downtrend.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.05 1/4, up 11 cents for the week. Despite the higher week close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Next support is pegged at $4.86, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $4.35 through the high of $5.36 3/4.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.60 1/2 down 4 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be down after the contract posted a bearish outside range last week. Initial support is at $5.58 3/4, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $5.20 through the recent high of $5.78. The 50% retracement level is down at $5.49.

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