Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Corn and Soybean Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.23 1/2, up 3/4 cent for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) remains up the NCI.X continues to test initial resistance near $3.23 1/2. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.00 1/2 through the low of $2.85 1/4. The 38.2% level is up at $3.29 1/4. Weekly stochastics are holding above the overbought level of 80% meaning a bearish crossover is increasingly likely. However, the major (long-term) trend still looks to be up.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed 0.50ct higher at $3.58 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with resistance near $3.67 3/4 and support at $3.47. The resistance price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.53 1/4 through the low of $3.25. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bullish below the overbought level of 80%, meaning the contract could still find renewed buying interest to test the high-end of its sideways range. The major (long-term) trend could still be classified as up following the December move to a new 4-month high.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 0.75ct higher at $3.86 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with initial resistance now at the 4-week high of $3.89 3/4, then $3.98 1/4. Initial support is near $3.77. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bullish below the overbought level of 80% meaning the market could still find increased buying interest to test the high side of its sideways range.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.73 3/4, up 50 3/4 cents for the week. The NSI.X rejoined its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, posing a new 4-week high at Friday's calculation. Next resistance is pegged at $9.94 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.12 through the low of $8.77 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain bullish and below the overbought level of 80% meaning an extension to the 61.8% retracement level of $10.22 1/2 is possible.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed at $10.46 1/4, up 51 1/2 cents for the week. The contract looked to rejoin its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, with initial resistance at the new 4-week high (last week's high) of $10.52 3/4. Beyond that resistance is pegged at $10.69 3/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.35 1/2 through the low of $9.38. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $10.18 1/2, up 36 cents for the week. While the contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-Wave downtrend, the minor (short-term) uptrend off support at $9.81 looks to be Wave 2. This could peak between $10.19 1/4 and $10.22 1/2, with a possible extension to $10.28 1/4. These prices mark the 61.8%, 67%, and 76.4% retracement levels of Wave 1 from $10.43 through the low of $9.80 3/4. Wave 3 is still expected to reach $9.50, the 50% retracement level of the previous 5-Wave uptrend from $8.57 through thee $10.43 high.

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Comments

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DARIN NEWSOM
1/23/2017 | 10:00 AM CST
Thanks John. I'll get that chart put together for you. Also, I'll look back through my archives to find that previous piece. Again, I appreciate your comments.
John Michael Pillow
1/22/2017 | 9:28 AM CST
Darin, your wave price levels in beans are fascinating. Would you mind putting that on a chart and maybe throw in some explanation for the laymen out there? (I do remember an article you wrote about wave theory and Greek mythology but I can't seem to find it.) Keep up the good work. We need good input on marketing now more than ever!!!