Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.22 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains up as the NCI.X tests initial resistance near $3.23 1/2. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.00 1/2 through the low of $2.85 1/4. The 38.2% level is up at $3.29 1/4. Weekly stochastics have climbed above the overbought level of 80%, meaning buying interest in cash corn could start to slow.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed 6.00cts higher at $3.58. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with resistance near $3.67 3/4 and support at $3.47. The resistance price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.53 1/4 through the low of $3.25. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bullish below the overbought level of 80%, meaning the contract could find renewed buying interest to test the high-end of its sideways range.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 5.50cts higher at $3.85 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with initial resistance now at the 4-week high of $3.92 3/4. Initial support is near $3.77, then $3.70 3/4. Weekly stochastics are neutral below the overbought level of 80%.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.23, down 8 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. The range is wide with resistance still at $9.75 1/4 and support $9.09 1/4. Weekly stochastics remain neutral.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed at $9.94 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents for the week. Though the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the contract's minor (short-term) trend is down. This has the contract testing secondary support at $9.92 3/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the previous rally from $9.38 through the high of $10.74. However, the move to a new 4-week low of $9.92 3/4 last week sets the stage for a test of the 76.4% retracement level of $9.81.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $9.82 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents for the week. The contract remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-Wave downtrend. The last 3-weeks have seen a test of initial support at $9.81, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $8.57 through the high of $10.43.

A move to a new 4-week low opens the door to possible Wave A low near the 50% retracement level of $9.50. Weekly stochastics remain bearish following a crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of December 12.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.83, up 18 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up last week, moving through its previous high weekly close of $3.73 1/4 (week of October 10). Next resistance is at $3.93 3/4 (close from the week of August 15).

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.48 1/4, up 14 cents for the week. The contract is in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend after posting a new 4-week high of $4.51 1/2. Next resistance is at $4.69 3/4, the high from the week of October 10.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.37 3/4, up 18 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up as the HW.X moved through its previous high weekly close of $3.27 1/4 (week of August). Next resistance is at $4.07 (close from the week of May 31).

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.56 1/2, up 15 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up as the contract posted a new 4-week high of $4.61 1/4. Next resistance is $4.67 1/2, the high from the week of October 17.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.17 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents for the week. SW.X resumed its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, influenced by the continued major (long-term) uptrend. Weekly stochastics are sharply overbought as the SW.X posted a new high weekly close last week.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.50 1/4, up 6 1/4 cents for the week. The contract rejoined its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, breaking out of its recent consolidation with a move to a new 4-week high of $5.54. Next resistance is at $5.58 3/4, the high from the week of October 10.

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