Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.16, down 1 1/2 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, weekly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80% and nearing a bearish crossover. Such an event would signal the end of the secondary uptrend with the NCI.X sitting just below resistance near $3.23 1/2. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.00 1/2 through the low of $2.85 1/4.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed 3.25cts lower at $3.56 1/4. Despite its recent consolidation the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is at $3.67 3/4, a price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.53 1/4 through the low of $3.25. Support is at $3.54 1/2, then $3.47.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 2.00cts lower at $3.86 1/2. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with initial resistance near $3.90 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.22 3/4 through the low of $3.58 1/2. The contract's ongoing consolidation pattern has support at $3.83, then $3.77.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.67 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up though the NSI.X has been unable to close above resistance near $9.75 1/4. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend (weekly close only) from $11.12 through the low of $8.08. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed at $10.46 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend for March soybeans could be nearing its end. The contract has fallen back from its recent test of resistance at $10.69 3/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $11.35 1/2 through the low of $9.38. Initial support is at last week's low of $10.28 3/4.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $10.19 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) looks to have turned down last week with the lower close creating a bearish crossover by daily stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. A secondary downtrend would fit with the market's normal seasonal pattern to move lower through early February. This seasonal downtrend could result in a test of initial support near $9.72, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $8.57 through the recent high of $10.43.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.60 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents for the week. The market's weekly close only chart is showing conflicting signals, with the series of lower highs and lower lows a classic secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend while weekly stochastics imply an uptrend is in place. In such cases, actual price movement over time trumps other indicators meaning the secondary trend is down. Initial support is at $3.5 1/2, the low close from the week of November 28. Beyond that is the major low weekly close of $3.44.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.34 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents for the week. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down on its weekly close only chart. Initial support is at the low close of $4.31 (week of November 28).

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.11 3/4, up 5 cents for the week. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up on its weekly close only chart. Initial resistance is at the double-top between $3.11 3/4 (week of October 17) and $3.12 1/4 (week of November 14), though the fact the latter was higher than the former would suggest a bullish breakout over the coming weeks. Also, weekly stochastics are bullish indicating a possible test of the next high weekly close of $3.27 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.38 1/2, up 1 cent for the week. The contract looks to be in a consolidating phase between its recent low of $4.23 1/2 and previous high of $4.67 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral, holding above the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.05, up 9 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up as the SW.X closed at a new high last week. While the major (long-term) trend is also up, weekly stochastics indicate the SW.X is sharply overbought.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.48 1/4, down 1/2 cent for the week. While indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, new-crop HRS wheat looks to be losing bullish momentum. Initial resistance is at the contracts previous high of $5.58 3/4 with support the low of $5.36 1/2.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .