Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.10 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be at the early phase of Wave 5 with initial resistance at the double-top (weekly close only) slightly below $3.12 1/2. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.00 1/2 through the low of $2.85 1/4. When the NCI.X breaks through this level the next target becomes the area between $3.23 1/2 and $3.29 1/2, the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels. At that time weekly stochastics should be well above the overbought level of 80%, setting the stage for the next downtrend.

Corn (Old-crop Futures): The March contract closed 4.75cts higher at $3.58 1/4. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with initial resistance at $3.67 3/4. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.53 1/4 through the low of $3.25. The 50% retracement level is up at $3.89 1/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

Corn (New-crop Futures): The December 2017 contract closed 5.50cts higher at $3.87 1/2. The contract's secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with initial resistance near $3.90 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.22 3/4 through the low of $3.58 1/2. The 61.8% retracement level is up at $3.98 1/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.72 1/2, up 52 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up with the NSI.X testing resistance near $9.75 1/4. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend (weekly close only) from $11.12 through the low of $8.08. With weekly stochastics still bullish, and well below the overbought level of 80%, the market could extend its rally to the 50% retracement level of $10.01 1/4.

Soybeans (Old-crop Futures): The January contract closed at $10.46, up 52 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the next target near $10.61 1/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.82 through the low of $9.40 1/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

Soybeans (New-crop Futures): The November 2017 contract closed at $10.26 1/2, up 33 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the next target area between $10.38 1/2 and $10.52 3/4. These prices mark the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $11.50 1/2 through the low of $8.57. Weekly stochastics are already above the overbought level of 80% possibly limiting continue buying interest.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.57 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The SR.X is testing minor (short-term) support at $3.58 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous rally from $3.44 through the high of $3.73 1/2. Weekly stochastics are bullish, well below the overbought level of 80%.

SRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Chicago July 2017 contract closed at $4.49 3/4, down 4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with resistance at the high of $4.69 3/4 and support the contract low of $4.33. Weekly stochastics are neutral above the oversold level of 20%.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.08 1/4, down 4 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Support (weekly close only) is at the recent low of $3.05 with resistance near $3.12 1/4. Weekly stochastics are bullish but still below the overbought level of 80%, indicating the market could see a bullish breakout.

HRW Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Kansas City July 2017 contract closed at $4.48 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with resistance at the high of $4.67 1/2 and support the contract low of $4.32. Weekly stochastics are bullish above the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.75 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend looks to be nearing its end as the SW.X fell back below resistance at $4.79 (weekly close only). Weekly stochastics are nearing a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. If this occurs it would indicate the secondary trend is turning down.

HRS Wheat (New-crop Futures): The Minneapolis September 2017 contract closed at $5.43 1/2, up 2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance at the high of $5.58 3/4 (week of October 10, 2016). Trendline support this week is calculated at $5.42 1/2.

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