Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $4.13 lower at $45.58. The market's secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend strengthened last week as the spot-month contract tested support at $44.86. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $27.10 through the high of $53.73 (week of October 10). The 50% retracement level is down at $40.41. Weekly stochastics remain bearish, as does the nearly $1.00 contango of the nearby futures spread.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $4.63 lower at $44.07. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down as the spot-month contract makes its way toward support at $42.04. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $51.93, a double-top with the peak of $51.67 (week of June 6). The 50% retracement level is down at $38.99, near major support pegged at $38.86 and the August low of $39.19.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 11.19cts lower at $1.4303. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Next support is pegged at $1.3674, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8487 through the recent high of $1.6264. The 50% retracement level is down at $1.2376.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 9.05cts lower at $1.3786. As mentioned last week, the market looks to have seen a bearish breakout on its weekly chart, rejoining its secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. Last week's wide price range saw a test of resistance at $1.6482 (spot-month high of $1.6351) before falling through support at $1.4104 (spot-month low of $1.3676. Next support is at $1.2820, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.8975 through the high of $1.6664.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 9.7cts lower at $1.548. As expected, the spot-month contract fell back from its test of resistance at $1.650 last week. Weekly stochastics turned bearish, indicating the market has likely rejoined its previous secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. While the market could remain range-bound, albeit in a wide range, its major (long-term) trend remains up.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 33.8cts lower at $2.767. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with initial support pegged at $2.696. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.611 through the high of $3.366. Weekly stochastics are bearish meaning the spot-month contract could fall to the 50% retracement level of $2.489, or possibly the 67% retracement level of $2.195.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 3.00cts lower at $0.5150. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Initial support is at $0.5009, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.3375 through the high of $0.5825.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .