Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.11 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, the NCI.X continues to struggle against resistance near $3.12 1/2. While weekly stochastics are bullish, daily stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Combined with a possible double-top on the daily chart between $3.14 3/4 (October 19) and $3.14 (October 27), the minor (short-term) trend now looks to be down with initial support at $3.04 3/4.

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed 2.50cts higher at $3.55. The market remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend with initial resistance at $3.66, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.49 through the contract low of $3.14 3/4. However, Dec corn continues to struggle posting a new 4-week high beyond $3.59 1/4. While weekly stochastics remains bullish, the market could see a minor (short-term) downtrend develop if traders start selling due to this past Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report*. In it noncommercial traders reportedly increased their net-long futures position by 9,479 contracts.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.27 3/4, 15 1/2 cents higher for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up with initial resistance pegged near $9.42 3/4. On the market's weekly close only chart, this price marks the 23.6% retracement level from the double-top high near $11.12 through the recent low of $8.91.

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed at $10.12, up 19 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up as the contract tested initial resistance at $10.20 3/4. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $11.82 through the low of $9.40 1/4. While weekly stochastics are bullish, daily stochastics indicate the minor (short-term) trend has turned down. Initial minor support is at $10.00 3/4, then $9.85 3/4.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.61 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the minor (short-term) trend has turned down with support near $3.58 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous rally from $3.44 through the recent high of $3.73 1/4.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.05, down 6 3/4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the minor (short-term) trend has turned down. Initial support on the daily chart is at $3.03 1/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.86 through the high of $3.14. The 50% retracement level is down at $3.00.

HRS Wheat (Futures): The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.73 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, the minor (short-term) trend remains down. Initial minor support is at $4.68 1/2, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $4.30 through the high of $4.80 1/4.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, October 25.

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