Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source; DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.87 higher at $51.93. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up. Weekly stochastics are bullish, though never established a crossover below the oversold level of 20%. The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week high of $52.84, challenging the last major (long-term) high of $52.86 (June 2016). While the major (long-term) is still up, the minor (short-term) trend is in position to roll over into a downtrend.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.57 higher at $49.81. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up. Weekly stochastics are bullish, though never established a crossover below the oversold level of 20%. The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week high of $50.74, challenging the last major (long-term) high of $51.67 (June 2016). While the major (long-term) is still up, the minor (short-term) trend looks to have rolled into a downtrend with daily stochastics establishing a bearish crossover above 90% at Friday's close.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 5.14cts higher at $1.5793. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up. Weekly stochastics are bullish, though never established a crossover below the oversold level of 20%. The spot-month contract posted a new 4-week high of $1.6058, above the previous major (long-term) high of $$1.5848 (June 2016). While the major (long-term) is still up, the minor (short-term) trend looks to have rolled into a downtrend with daily stochastics establishing a bearish crossover above 90% at Friday's close.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 0.56cts lower at $1.4818. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. Support is near $1.2820 with resistance at $1.5257 (high from the week of August 22). While the major (long-term) trend remains up, daily stochastics are nearing a possible bearish crossover above 80% that would indicate a move to a minor (short-term) downtrend.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 3.0cts lower at $1.517. The previous week's doji (candlestick) pattern did indeed indicate a likely turn in the market's secondary (intermediate-term) trend. After testing resistance between $1.550 and $1.594 the spot-month contract now looks to be in position to rejoin the previous secondary downtrend. The minor (short-term) downtrend established the previous week continues to strengthen.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 28.7cts higher at $3.193. The market remains a good reminder of how longer-term trends trump shorter-term patterns. The major (long-term) trend is up. However the spot-month contract is above resistance at $3.476, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.72 through the low of $1.611. Meanwhile monthly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80% setting the stage for a possible bearish crossover at the end of October.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 3.75cts higher at $0.5375. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up as cash propane tested its previous high of $0.5425. Weekly stochastics have moved above 80%, setting the stage for a possible bearish crossover over the coming weeks. The market's major (long-term) trend remains up.

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