Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $49.68, down $0.01 on the monthly chart. Despite the lower monthly close the major (long-term) trend remains up. The spot-month contract continues to test initial resistance at $51.01, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $128.40 (March 2012) through the low of $27.10 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics remain bullish indicating the market could extend this rally to the 33% retracement level of $60.83.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $8.33, down $0.77 on the monthly chart. Despite the lower monthly close the major (long-term) trend remains up. The spot-month contract once again closed above initial resistance at $47.08, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $114.83 (May 2011) through the low of $26.05 posted in February 2016, but was unable to generate buying enthusiasm. Monthly stochastics continue to grow more bullish, indicating noncommercial buying could push the market to the 38.2% retracement level of $59.96.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.4887, down 0.88ct on the monthly chart. Despite the lower monthly close the major (long-term) trend remains up. The spot-month contract continues to hold above initial resistance at $1.4437, a price that marks the 23.6% resistance level of the previous downtrend from $3.3700 (January 2014) through the low of $0.8487 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics are growing more bullish indicating the market could extend this move to the 33% retracement level of $1.6883.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.5013, down 11.36cts on the monthly chart. While the major (long-term) trend remains up the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways. Support on the weekly chart is at $1.4849, then $1.4104. Major resistance remains $1.5067 and $1.7571, prices that mark the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous major downtrend from $3.4789 (April 2011) through the low of $0.8975 (February 2016).

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.624, down 2.4cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up with an initial upside target of $1.712 (the June high was $1.739). This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.07 through the low of $1.292. Monthly stochastics are bullish indicating the market could extend its rally to the 33% retracement level of $1.884.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $2.924, up 63.6cts on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend is up. Next resistance is pegged at $2.979, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.72 (January 2014) through the low of $1.611 (March 2016). The 50% retracement level is up at $3.665.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.4700, down 1.63cts on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up. However, cash propane continues to hold below initial resistance at $0.5428, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $1.4825 (December 2015) through the low of $0.2525 (January 2016).

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