Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.39 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents for the week. It remains difficult to get a good read on the secondary (intermediate-term) trend of the NCI.X. Given last week's bearish close following the previous week's bullish range, the secondary trend could still be viewed as sideways with support between $3.29 and $3.23. Resistance between $3.49 1/2 and $3.59 1/2 continues to hold.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The July contract closed 6.50cts lower at $3.75 1/2. Despite Friday's sharp sell-off, technical indicators continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. The contract did see its minor (short-term) trend turn down after testing secondary resistance at $4.11 1/4 (last week's high was $4.07 1/4). Next minor support is pegged at $3.70, the 67% retracement level of the uptrend from $3.51 1/4 through last week's high.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed at $3.81, down 7 1/4 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close, technical indicators show the secondary (inte4rmediate-term) trend to be up. The contract posted a new 4-week high of $4.09 before falling sharply late in the week. This had the contract within striking distance of initial resistance at $4.13. Minor (short-term) support is at $3.79, then the contract low of $3.64.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.22 1/4, up 26 1/4 cents for the week. The NSI.X is a contradiction of signals as of last Friday's settlement. After posting a new 4-week high ($9.54), the late week sell-off led to a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics well above the overbought level of 80%. This would suggest the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The July contract closed at $9.96 1/4, up 32 cents for the week. Despite the higher weekly close, and the establishment of a new 4-week high ($10.43 3/4), last week's late sell-off created a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%. This would imply that the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. If so initial support is at $8.92 1/2, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $8.59 1/2 through last week's high. The 50% retracement level is down at $9.51 1/2.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed at $9.83, up 16 1/2 cents for the week. An early week rally saw the contract post a new 4-week high of $10.23 1/2, a test of resistance at $10.07 1/2. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend. However, the contract then saw a sharp late week sell-off that created a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the 80% level. This would suggest the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Initial support is at $9.65 3/4, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend, with the 50% mark down at $9.36 3/4.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.25 1/2, up 7 cents for the week. The SR.X remains a mix of signals, with the end result being the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. After posting a new 4-week high of $4.63, a test of initial resistance at $4.54 1/2, the SR.X saw a sharp sell-off to end the week creating a bearish crossover by stochastics below the overbought level of 80%. Support remains at the major (long-term) low of $4.02 1/4.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed at $4.74, up 6 1/2 cents for the week. Similar to the above mentioned SR.X, July Chicago is a mix of signals with the end result being the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. After posting a new 4-week high of $5.18 1/2, a test of initial resistance at $5.16 1/4, the contract saw a sharp sell-off to end the week. Support remains at the major (long-term) low of $4.49 1/2.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.96 1/4, up 4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways between last week's high of $4.29 and the major (long-term) low of $3.78 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed at $4.73 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways between last week's high of $5.09 1/4 and the contract low of $4.52 3/4.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.75, up 3/4 cent for the week. The SW.X remains a mix of signals, with the end result being the secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to be sideways. After posting a new 4-week high of $5.01 1/4, a test of initial resistance at $4.97, the SW.X saw a sharp sell-off to end the week creating a bearish crossover by stochastics below the overbought level of 80%. Support remains at the major (long-term) low of $4.44 1/4.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed at $5.42 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) term trend has finally turned sideways, the uptrend acquiescing to continued resistance between $5.38 3/4 and $5.53 1/2. These prices mark the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous downtrend. Initial support is at the 4-week low of $5.27 3/4.

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