Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.77 lower at $38.67. Despite another lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The minor (short-term) downtrend remains in place and could result in a test of secondary trendline support at $37.44 this week, a price that is also near the 33% retracement level ($37.40) of the previous minor uptrend from $27.10 through the recent high of $42.54. Daily (short-term) stochastics are nearing the oversold level of 20%.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.67 lower at $36.79. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up the minor (short-term) downtrend is nearing support at $35.85. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $26.05 through the high of $41.90. Daily stochastics remain bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 6.62cts lower at $1.1317. The market is seeing a pause in its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend while the minor (short-term) downtrend plays itself out. With daily stochastics near the oversold level of 20% the spot-month contract continues to hold above minor support at $1.1129. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $0.8487 through the high of $1.2762. The 50% retracement level is down at $1.0625.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 6.43cts lower at $1.4016. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the market has been consolidating over the last few weeks. Initial support is at $1.3083, the 38.2% retracement level of thee initial rally from the major (long-term) low of $0.8975 through the minnow (short-term) high of $1.5134. This 38.2% retracement level is also near support at the 4-week low of $1.3303.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 2.00cts higher at $1.445. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 15.0cts higher at $1.956. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up again as the spot-month contract established a bullish outside week, including a new 4-week high of $2.028. With weekly stochastics once again bullish the market could look to test its previous high of $2.495 (week of January 4).

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 1.12cts lower at $0.3888. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be down, cash propane found support near $0.3699. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.2525 through the high of $0.4425. If this support continues to hold it could spark a rally to test the previous high, possibly establishing a double-top pattern.

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