Technically Speaking

Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $39.60, up $3.63 on the monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up. Monthly stochastics continue to indicate bullish momentum is growing, with the initial target for the spot-month contract up at $51.01. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $128.40 through the low of $27.10.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $38.34, up $4.59 on the monthly chart. Monthly stochastics indicate the major (long-term) trend remains up. The initial target is $47.00, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $114.83 (May 2011) through the low of $26.05 posted in February 2016. One concern is that the market's fundamentals remain bearish, with the contango in the spot futures spread strong at $1.41.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.1858, up 10.98cts on the monthly chart. As with crude oil markets the major (long-term) trend for distillates is up. The initial upside target is $1.4437, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.37 (January 2014) through the January 2016 low of $0.8487.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.4435, up 39.38cts on the monthly chart. The market remains skewed by the roll into a large contango that occurred at the end of February. Still, the latest major signal by monthly stochastics was a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% back in February 2015.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.436, up 5.8cts on the monthly chart. The spot-month contract posted a bullish outside month in March, confirming the move to a major (long-term) uptrend indicated by the monthly stochastics bullish crossover at the end of February. The initial upside target is $1.712, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.07 through the low of $1.292.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $1.970, up 25.9cts on the monthly chart. The market looks to have turned sideways, in position for the establishment of a major (long-term) uptrend. If the spot-month contract can follow-through on gains seen in March, this past month's activity could be viewed as a bullish two-month reversal.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.3950, up 0.75ct on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend remains up. However, cash propane was unable to close near its monthly high of $0.4425. Still, monthly stochastics are bullish and the initial upside target is $0.5428.

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