Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.81 higher at $41.20. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The spot-month posted a bullish outside week, and when combined with still bullish weekly stochastics, could extend its secondary trend to a test of resistance at $43.35. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $69.63 through the low of $27.10. The 50% retracement level is up at $48.36.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.94 higher at $39.44. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The spot-month contract posted a bullish outside week before closing near resistance at $40.00. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $62.58 through the low of $26.05. The next target is the 50% retracement level at $44.31. Weekly stochastics remain bullish below the overbought level of 80%.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.11cts higher at $1.2391. The secondary (intermediate-term) is up with the spot-month contract working toward initial resistance at $1.4185. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2633 through the low of $0.8487. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 1.70cts lower at $1.4273. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up the spot-month contract continues to consolidate near resistance at $1.429. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.1520 through the low of $0.8975. Next resistance is pegged at the 33% retracement level of $1.6482. Seasonally the market tends to rally through late April. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, but nearing the overbought level of 80%.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.5ct lower at $1.425. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, well below the overbought level of 80%.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 8.5cts higher at $1.907. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains. However, the minor (short-term) trend looks to be turning down after the spot-month contract fell back from its test of resistance at $1.949. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous minor downtrend from $2.495 through the low of $1.611. Daily stochastics also established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Initial short-term support is at $1.825, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend through last week's high of $1.957.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 2.25cts lower at $0.4100. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is nearing a downturn as cash propane pulled back from its recent high of $0.4425, setting the stage for a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%.

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