Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.31 1/4, up 1/4 cent for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support near $3.29. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis strengthened by 1 1/2 cents last week with Friday's NCI.X coming in 27 cents below the close of the May futures contract.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The May contract closed 1.25cts lower at $3.58 1/4. The contract looks to have established a double-bottom after rallying off last week's low of $3.54 1/2. The previous low was $3.54 1/4 from the week of January 4. While the contract remains vulnerable to a move to a new low, confirmation of a possible secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend would occur if it is able to climb above the interim (between the lows) high of $3.78 1/4.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed at $3.78, down 1/4 cent for the week. After posting a new contract low of $3.73 1/4, Dec corn was able to rally through the weekly close. The new low combined with a possible spike bullish reversal is giving conflicting secondary (intermediate-term) trend signals.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.25 1/2, 17 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways between resistance near $8.48 and support at the major (long-term) low of $8.08 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis strengthened by 2 1/2 cents last week with Friday's NSI.X calculated 53 cents under the close of the May futures contract. The 10-year average for last week is 53 1/2 cents under.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The May contract closed 15.00cts higher at $8.78 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the contract low of $8.53 1/2. Initial resistance is at the recent high of $8.90 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral above the oversold level of 20%.

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed 15.00cts higher at $8.91. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways after the contract was able to rally off its test of support at $8.75 1/2. The close near last week's high of $8.91 3/4 indicates momentum could be growing more bullish, hinting at a possible breakout above resistance at the recent high of $8.98 (week of February 1).

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.16 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents for the week. The cash SRW market remains a mix of signals, though the latest bullish crossover by weekly stochastics would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend could be nearing an upturn.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed 7 1/4 cents higher at $4.66 3/4. Last week's rally off a new contract low of $4.49 1/2 to close near the weekly high of $4.70 could signal the completion of a combined 2-week reversal and bullish spike reversal. Both would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is turning up. However, the bullish crossover by weekly stochastics occurred above the oversold level of 20%.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.04 1/4, up 17 3/4 cents for the week. The HW.X posted a bullish outside week which combined with the new low of $3.84 1/2 creates a bullish reversal. This would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. Confirmation of this would occur with a move above last week's high, the 4-week high, of $4.04 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed 13.50cts higher at $4.78 last week. The July contract posted a bullish outside week which combined with its new low of $4.57 1/4 creates a bullish reversal. This would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. Confirmation of this would occur with a move above last week's high, the 4-week high, of $4.80.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.57, up 2 cents for the week. The SW.X looks to have established a double-bottom with last week's low of $4.48 and the previous low of $4.44 (week of August 31, 2015). A move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend would be confirmed by a move above the interim (between the two lows) high of $5.02 (week of November 2, 2015).

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed 6 cents higher at $5.14 3/4. The September contract posted a bullish outside week which combined with the new low of $5.02 3/4 creates a bullish reversal. This would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up. Confirmation of this would occur with a move above last week's high, the 4-week high, of $5.18 1/2.

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