Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.29 lower at $37.60. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned sideways with the spot-month contract holding above its recent major (long-term) low of $35.98. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% and nearing a potential bullish crossover that would suggest a change in trend. Initial resistance is at the recent high of $38.10. The minor (short-term) trend appeared to turn up last week.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.06 lower at $37.04. Despite the lower weekly close both the minor (short-term) and secondary (intermediate-term) trends are up, the latter established with the previous week's bullish reversal still in effect. Initial resistance is at that week's high of $38.28. Weekly stochastics remain bullish below the oversold level of 20%.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.30cts higher at $1.1239. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up last week as the spot-month contract posted a bullish reversal on its weekly chart, trading outside the previous weeks' range with a new low of $1.0704 before closing higher. This led to a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 0.67ct higher at $1.2710. The market looks poised to establish a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend early in the week, closing just below the 4-week high of $1.3089. A move above this level would put the spot-month contract in step with bullish weekly stochastics that continue to build on the bullish crossovers below the oversold level of 20% from the weeks of October 25 and November 15.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 0.1ct lower at $1.400. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways, though the minor (short-term) uptrend could spark a rally back toward the high side of the trading range. Initial resistance is at the recent high of $1.533. Weekly stochastics remain neutral above the oversold level of 20%.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 30.8cts higher at $2.337. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the spot-month contract may have established a double-top formation near $2.387 on its daily chart indicating the minor (short-term) trend could turn down. If so, initial minor support is pegged at $2.153, a price that marks the 33% retracement level from the recent low of $1.684.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed unchanged at $0.3338. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up following the bullish crossover by stochastics the week of December 21. Initial resistance is pegged at the 4-week high of $0.3800.

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