Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.49, down 6 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-up. Trendline support is pegged this week at $3.47, with support expected to come from a continued firming of national average basis. Last Friday saw the NCI.X come in 24 cents under the close of the December futures contract, 4 cents stronger than the previous Friday's 28 cents under. Resistance remains at $3.67, the 50% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $4.06 (week of July 13) through the low of $3.28 (week of August 31).

Corn (Dec futures): The December contract closed 9.25cts lower at $3.73. Despite continued bullish weekly stochastics, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. The contract has been consolidating within the range from the week of August 10 with its high of $4.02 and low of $3.57 1/2. Support from commercial buying continues to be offset by noncommercial selling, with Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing this group reducing their net-long futures holdings by 3,186 contracts.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.19, down 12 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the low of $8.09 and resistance at the high of $8.74. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish below the oversold level of 20%. National average basis firmed by about 6 3/4 cents last week with Friday's NSI.X coming in 48 cents below the close of the January futures contract.

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed 18.50cts lower at $8.67 1/4. The minor (short-term) trend looks to have turned up late last week, allowing Jan soybeans to hold above what now looks to be a triple-bottom near $8.57. An old trading theory states that "triples are always taken out", and if so, would project a major (long-term) low near $7.90. For now the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with support at the low of $8.57 (week of September 8) and resistance at $9.23 1/2 (week of October 12).

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.74, up 2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. Next resistance is at $4.81, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the downtrend from $6.23 through the low off $4.11. The 50% retracement level is up at $5.17. National average basis firmed by about 1 1/4 cents with Friday's SR.X coming in about 49 cents below the close of the December Chicago futures contract.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.36, down 3 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains sideways with support at the low of $4.06 and resistance pegged at $4.62. This price marks thee 23.6% retracement level of the downtrend from $6.41 through the $4.06 low. Weekly stochastics are bullish indicating the market could continue to work higher. National average basis was steady last week with Friday's HW.X coming in 54 1/2 cents under the close of the Kansas City December futures contract.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.95, down 2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the SW.X testing resistance at its previous high of $5.01. Weekly stochastics are bullish indicating the market should continue to work higher. Next resistance is at $5.19, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.68 through the low of $4.44. National average basis firmed by about 5 cents last week with Friday's SW.X coming in at 24 cents under the close of the December Minneapolis futures contract.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, November 3.

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