Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.44, down 5 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with major (long-term) support at $3.44, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous rally from $2.81 (low from October 2014) through $4.06 (high from July 2015). Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%.

Corn (Dec futures): The December contract closed 6.00cts lower at $3.76 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways after the contract failed to generate buying enthusiasm after posting a new 4-week high the previous week. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long futures position by 30,857 contracts. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish above the oversold level of 20%. Major (long-term) support remains at $3.63 1/2, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $3.18 1/4 (October 2014 low) through $4.54 1/4 (July 2015 high).

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.41, up 12 cents for the week. The NSI.X posted a new 4-week high of $8.57 last week, helping weekly stochastics to establish a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% and Friday's calculation. While these technical signals indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up, the NSI.X did finish well off its weekly high Friday, and below the previous 4-week high of $8.47.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed 12.50cts higher at $8.98 1/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned up as November soybeans posted a new 4-week high of $9.19 3/4. The higher weekly close resulted in a bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Support came from both commercial and noncommercial traders, with the former indicated by the weakening carry of the market's forward curve. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding to their net-long futures position by 19,445 contracts.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.42, down 12 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, the minor (short-term) trend is down. The SR.X is testing support at $4.41, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the rally from $4.11 through the high of $4.71. The 67% retracement level is down at $4.31.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.27, down 17 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains while the minor (short-term) trend is down. After the recent test of resistance at $4.62, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.41 through the low of $4.06, the HW.X is testing support at $4.24. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous rally from the $4.06 low through the weekly high of $4.60.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.75, down 15 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up while the minor (short-term) is down. The SW.X is testing support at $4.72, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous rally from $4.44 through the high of $5.01. The 67% retracement level is down at $4.63.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, October 13.

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