Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.30, down 11 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways-to-down with the NCI.X moving toward a test of major (long-term) support at $3.23. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from the October 2014 low of $2.81 through the July 2015 high of $4.06. Weekly stochastics remain bearish below the oversold level of 20%.

Corn (Dec futures): The December contract closed 12.00cts lower at $3.63. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-down with minor support at the recently established contract low of $3.64 1/4. Major (long-term) support remains at the October low of $3.18 1/4. While indications are the major trend remains up, pressure continues to come from both commercial and noncommercial interests. The latter was reflected by Friday's weekly Commitments of Traders report that showed this group reducing their net-long futures position by 3,243 contracts.

Corn (July futures): The July contract closed 11.00cts lower at $3.86 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down, with minor support at the recently established contract low of $3.80 1/2. Weekly stochastics are bearish, sliding below the oversold level of 20% last week. Pressure continues to come from selling tied to both commercial and noncommercial traders.

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Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.37, down 37 cents for the week. Both the secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) trends are down as the NSI.X posted a new low of $8.37 last week. The NSI.X is at its lowest level since March 2009. Both weekly and monthly stochastics show cash soybeans to be in an oversold situation.

Soybeans (Futures): The November contract closed 19.00cts lower at $8.66 1/2. Though Nov beans were able to hold above the recently established contract low of $8.55, bearish weekly stochastics indicate a new low could soon be established. Pressure continues to come from noncommercial selling, with Friday's Weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing this group reduced their net-long futures holdings by 16,195 contracts.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.13, down 7 cents for the week. Cash SRW moved to a new low last week of $4.11, its lowest level since June 2010. Both monthly and weekly stochastics continue to show the SR.X in a sharply oversold situation.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.13, down 4 cents for the week. The HW.X closed at a new 5-year low despite both weekly and monthly stochastics indicating the market is in an oversold situation. Major (long-term) support is all the way down at near $3.42, the low from June 2010.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.46, down 3 cents for the week. The move to a new low of $4.44 extended both the secondary (intermediate-term) and major (long-term) downtrends. Weekly and monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% indicating the cash market is sharply oversold.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, September 1.

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