Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.44 lower at $49.61. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be up following the previous week's bullish key reversal. Weekly stochastics remains bullish, indicating momentum is building despite last week's lower close.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.83 higher at $46.05. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, with support coming from both commercial and noncommercial traders. Commercial buying is indicated by the move to solid uptrends in the futures spreads. Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 4,779 contracts to their net-long futures position. Initial resistance is pegged between $46.02 and $50.16, prices that mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $62.58 through the recent low of $37.75.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 1.96cts higher at $1.5960. The secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend remains in place with the spot-month contract building on the previous week's bullish key reversal. Weekly stochastics also remain bullish, indicating momentum continues to build.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 10.36cts lower at $1.4182. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with major (long-term) support at the low of $1.2265. Weekly stochastics continue to indicate the market is oversold, a factor that continues to draw some noncommercial buying interest. Last Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed this group adding 3,127 contracts to their net-long futures position.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 1.10cts higher at $1.4540. The market is showing a possible move to a secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend as the spot-month contract continues to hold support at $1.4309. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.2920 through the high of $1.7090. Also, weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at last week's close.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 6.0cts lower at $2.655. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the spot-month contract holding near support at $2.704. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $2.443 through the high of $3.105. Weekly stochastics are neutral-to-bearish.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 4.75cts higher at $0.4075. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with cash propane posting a new 4-week high of $0.4250. Weekly stochastics are bullish indicating the market could continue to move higher over the coming weeks.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report showed positions held as of Tuesday, September 1.

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