Technically Speaking

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.62, down $0.04 for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with the last signal a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics the week of December 29. After falling to a low of $3.44, a test of technical support at $3.47, the NCI.X has moved sideways. Weekly stochastics remain neutral to bearish hinting at a second test of support at $3.47.

Corn (Old-crop): The May contract closed 2.25cts lower at $3.86 last week. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Support remains pegged between $3.82 1/4 and $3.72, prices that mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.39 1/4 through the high of $4.25 1/4. Support from the commercial side of the market continues to be offset by noncommercial selling, with Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Trader report showing the latter group reducing their net-long futures position by another 16,061 contracts.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 6.75cts lower at $4.10 3/4 last week. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. Given the continued neutral view of new-crop supply and demand indicated by the carry in the December 2015 to March 2016 futures spread, Dec corn could fall back to a test of support at $4.03 1/2. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.64 1/4 through the high of $4.40. Support at the 67% retracement level is near $3.91 1/2.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.38, down 46 cents for the week. The previous week's spike high failed to generate follow-through buying enthusiasm, meaning the NSI.X was not able to establish a bullish breakout above its previous high of $10.02. Indications are that the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the recent low of $9.12. However, the last signal established by weekly stochastics was a bullish crossover the week of October 13 indicating the NSI.X should eventually see a move into a stronger uptrend. The upside target remains near $10.98, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50.

Soybeans (old-crop): The May contract closed 46.75cts lower at $9.85 last week. May soybeans fell back from its recent test of resistance near $10.48, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.87 through the low of $9.28 3/4. Last week's sharp sell-off resulted in a test of support near $9.77 1/2, the 50% retracement level of the rally from the previous low through the high of $10.75, as well as weekly trendline support near $9.71 1/2. A failure to hold this support could send the contract back to its previous low. While Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests moving to a small net-long futures position, pressure came from renewed commercial selling. Still, the weak carry in the May to July futures spread continues to indicate a neutral to bullish commercial outlook.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 32.25cts lower at $9.65 1/4 last week. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Nov soybeans were able to hold support near $9.65 at the close, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the rally from $9.27 1/2 through the high of $10.39 3/4. The weak carry in the new-crop forward curve (November 2015 through July 2016 contracts) continues to indicate a long-term bullish commercial outlook. Initial resistance remains between $10.29 and $10.43 3/4, prices that marks the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $12.32 through the contract low of $9.27 1/2.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.56, down 32 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down with a move to a new low by the SR.X. Though the market is oversold with weekly stochastics well below 20%, next support is at the low of $4.25 (week of September 22, 2014).

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The May Chicago contract closed 30.50cts lower at $4.82 1/2 last week. May Chicago wheat posted a new contract low of $4.78 1/4 despite weekly stochastics showing the market to be sharply oversold. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests increased their net-short futures holding by 5,839 contracts. Major (long-term) support is at the September 2014 low of $4.66 1/4.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 30.25cts lower at $4.86 1/2 last week. July Chicago wheat posted a new low of $4.84 1/2 despite extending the secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. However, weekly stochastics well below the 20% level continue to indicate the contract is sharply oversold.

Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders were report showed positions as of Tuesday, March 2.

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