Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.65, up $0.03 for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down while the minor (short-term) trend is up. Minor resistance is between $3.62 and $3.68, prices that mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the sell-off from $3.80 through the low of $3.44. Secondary resistance remains at $3.84 with secondary support at $3.47.

Corn (Old-crop): The March contract closed 1.50cts higher at $3.87 1/4 last week. Weekly stochastics remain bearish, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. However, the March contract could post a new 4-week high this coming week, indicating a possible test of resistance near $4.04. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the secondary downtrend from $5.23 through the low of $3.30 1/2. The previous high was $4.17. Support remains between $3.73 3/4 and $3.63 1/2.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 0.75ct higher at $4.17 1/2 last week. Weekly stochastics remain bearish indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. However, support near $4.15 1/2 continues to hold, with next support pegged at $4.03 1/2. If the contract is able to post a new 4-week high, above last week's high of $4.21 3/4, then it could soon test secondary resistance near $4.34 1/4. The previous high was $4.40.

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Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.46, up 19 cents for the week. Weekly stochastics are neutral indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. However the latest signal generated by weekly stochastics was a bullish crossover the week of October 13. This could eventually lead to a test of the previous high of $10.02. National average basis strengthened 1 cent last week with the NSI.X 45 cents under the close of the March futures contract.

Soybeans (old-crop): The March contract closed 17.00cts higher at $9.90 1/2 last week. Weekly stochastics are neutral indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. The contract could move back into an uptrend with a move to a new 4-week high, above $9.99. If so, resistance remains near $10.60 3/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the downtrend from $12.87 1/2 through the low of $9.20 3/4. Support remains between $9.69 1/2 and $9.55 1/4.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 11.00cts higher at $9.71 last week. Weekly stochastics are neutral indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Support is at the 4-week low of $9.40. If the contract can move to a new 4-week high, above $9.78 1/2, it could rejoin its secondary uptrend that began the week of October 6, 2014. Secondary resistance is between $10.29 and $10.43 3/4.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.05, up 6 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with initial resistance pegged at $5.18, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.23 through the low of $4.66. However, given the continued strength of national average basis the SR.X could test the 50% retracement level of $5.45.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The March Chicago contract closed 6.00cts higher at $5.33 last week. March Chicago wheat continues to consolidate, though a move to a new 4-week high could trigger a move back to its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend that began the week of September 29, 2014. The 4-week high is $5.44 1/2. Support remains at the recent low of $4.09 1/4.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 1.00ct higher at $5.32 1/4 last week. July Chicago wheat remains poised to rejoin its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend from the week of September 29, 2014. However, it would not be surprising to see another week of consolidation for the contract with resistance at the 4-week high of $5.51 1/4 and support at the 4-week low of $5.01.

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