Minding Ag's Business

Corn Grower Skeptics

Severe drought has edged into the heart of Corn Belt states like Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakotas, making some skeptical that trend line corn yields will emerge.


There's a reason western Corn Belt farmers aren't pre-selling their 2013 crops too soon this year: They can smell another drought in the making. Sure they know some marketing consultants are predicting sub-$4 corn by harvest, but growers west of the Mississippi I visited with at meetings so far this winter see little chance of trend line yields in the heart of corn country, even if corn planting hits 100 million acres.

In Northwest Iowa--the epicenter of Iowa's pork belt and home to cattle feedlots-- some rural water systems are discussing rationing plans and moving earth to collect more surface water. Since October 1, that northwest corner of the state has received 50% to 75% less rainfall than normal, points out DTN Agricultural Meteorologist Bryce Anderson. Most of that region now falls into the definition of extreme drought, far worse than at this stage a year ago, but slightly better than the exceptional drought that has engulfed most of Nebraska. Last year's corn yields in that region of Iowa tumbled 21% on average compared to 2011.

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A winter storm is bringing much needed moisture to the region this week, but not erasing all concerns. "We are still hanging on with deep wells and a small trickle in of rural water at this time. Shallow wells are all dry," an area pork and grain producer tells DTN.

He expects rationing by the rural water system could force him to depopulate his hog buildings unless conditions improve. Crop options aren't pretty either: One of his fields received just three inches of precipitation in the past year. He's planning on shaving his plant populations on corn down 5,000 per acre, if he plants. If it's too dry, he'll switch to more soybeans.

In Saline, Mich., Dennis and Lynn Finkbeiner could normally ice skate on the wetlands they maintain for wildlife habit--just as they have for the 32 years of their married life. But it's so dry in mid-February, there's no standing water and Dennis was culling diseased trees while his vehicle could maneuver without getting stuck.

In Nevada, Iowa--just off Interstate 35 and about 30 miles north of Des Moines--corn and soybean farmer Steve Henry dug a 10-foot pit for a tile connection in November. He hit a blue clay layer where the soil crumbled in his hands. That makes him worry about enough soil moisture to sustain seedlings after germination.

Willard and Sharon Friesen live in Mountain Lake, Minn., but you wouldn't find many puddles there at the moment. "There's moisture in the first six to eight inches, but it's bone dry underneath," says Willard. "Last year's crop took everything it could get." Like Iowa growers, he's thinking of cutting his plant population to 33,000, down from 35,000 per acre. He also isn't enthusiastic about selling too aggressively, since he spent much of 2012 worried about whether he could fill his forward contracts.

"Dust Bowl comparisons are valid," DTN's Bryce Anderson says. "Forget the 1988 drought. In some cases, it was hotter and drier last year than in 1934. Now we're going into the growing season with stage 3 and 4 drought over much of the northern Corn Belt. Three-month forecasts by NOAA don't show much improvement in precipitation. The idea that a trend line yield will occur is pretty slim."

Follow Marcia Taylor on Twitter@MarciaZTaylor.

Marcia Taylor can be reached at marcia.taylor@telventdtn.com

(SK)

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WARREN HARDY
2/28/2013 | 9:34 PM CST
I can only hope for a huge crop as a farmer and a consumer. We need to build our nations grain reserves back for security reasons as well as for a nation of wealth an milk and honey. This may sound un business like but I am doing everything I can think of to keep corn prices down by producing all the bushels I can muster out. If it takes higher bushels to bring down corn prices then so be it. I'm ready for a huge crop. Warren Hardy, Seven Springs NC
Curt Zingula
2/25/2013 | 7:08 AM CST
While MOST farmers aren't afraid of their own shadow, we do have to wonder why we can read about the calamities of climate change one day and then the early prediction of bumper crops the next. Somebody appears to be asleep at the wheel, and after last year's yield/price prediction fiasco, I think I know who!
Ric Ohge
2/21/2013 | 9:26 AM CST
Yet, nearly everyday, one can go out into a N Iowa morning, and see the Chem-Trails left by the USDA Sanctioned attempts at "Geo-Engineering" the weather. The question no one is asking? Is this helping or actually mitigating the drought conditions? Perhaps it's time someone brought some answers forward-n'est pas?