Market Matters Blog

Informa Sees Big South America Crops

By Katie Micik

OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics sees larger corn crops in Brazil and Argentina and maintains its forecasts for large soybean crops.

The firm also presented forecasts for Argentine production in 2016 that highlighted a big shift to corn following changes in the government's export tax policies.

Informa raised its forecast for Brazilian corn production to 81.6 million metric tons, slightly higher than USDA's 81.5 mmt estimate. In Argentina, the group calls for 26 mmt, more than USDA's estimate of 25.6 mmt, based on its recent survey of producers.

On soybeans, USDA sees Brazilian farmers harvesting 100.5 mmt, which is 900,000 metric tons below Informa's previous forecast but still higher than USDA's latest estimate. Argentine farmers are likely to harvest 60 mmt of soybeans, which is 1.5 mmt higher than last month's estimate and 3 mmt higher than USDA's last estimate.

Informa released early forecasts for next year's crop mix in Argentina, calling for 30 mmt of corn production and 56 mmt of soybean production. That's a big shift to corn from beans, and reflects the new president's decision to lift export taxes completely on corn while only gradually reducing them on soybeans.

"Informa's estimates had no noticeable impact on grain prices at the time of release," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said. "The soybean and wheat estimates are close enough to USDA estimates to be considered neutral, but the increase in Argentina's corn production estimate for 2016 is a bearish factor, if true."

On wheat, Hultman noted that Informa pegged production in India at 87 mmt, a little less than USDA's 88.94 mmt. It also increased its estimate of China's wheat production to 130.0 mmt, the same as USDA's.

Katie Micik can be reached at katie.micik@dtn.com

Follow Katie Micik on Twitter @KatieMDTN

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andrew mohlman 2/4/2016 | 7:35 AM CST
O gee what a surprise the largest over estimating group there is to bad there not held accountable smaller crops are obvious and good they can lose money growing corn I suppose they have 250 bu corn too