Fundamentally Speaking

End of August Corn Crop Conditions

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Estimates for Friday's crop report show corn production at 13.484 bln bushels in a yield of 166.5 bushels per acre (bpa) vs. last USDA estimate of 13.686 bln on a yield of 168.8 bpa

Recall the USDA figures for yields, production and ending stocks were all much higher than expected in the August crop report and that and the volatility in the outside markets has pressured values over the past thirty days.

Using our usual ratings system (where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results) the accompanying graphic calculates the end of August corn crop conditions for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. for both this year and last.

This graphic also denotes where the end of August 2015 ranks compared to the other end of August ratings for the period 1986-2015 with the exception of North Dakota and Tennessee where the 2000-2015 data is used.

For corn, current U.S. crop conditions are quite good with the end of August 748 rating the 11th best out of 30 seasons though it is down 3.4% from last year's 774 rating that presaged a record national corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bpa).

A look at the individual state ratings confirms what we have known all year with well below average conditions in much of the Eastern Corn Belt and Missouri Valley area offset by record yield potential out west.

MN has its second best end of August rating ever, 10.8% above year ago levels with IA, ND, SD, NE and WI all in the top third of their ratings.

On the other hand, IL, IN, OH, TX and NC are not doing well at all.



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