Fundamentally Speaking

Week 33 Soybean Ratings

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Similar to a piece we did with corn this graphic shows soybean crop ratings for the top 18 growing states for the 33rd week of the year that usually corresponds to the middle of August, the key developmental month for this crop.

Using our usual ratings system (where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results) the week 33 figure is calculated and also the 1986-2015 average with the exception of North Dakota and Wisconsin where the 2000-2015 average is used.

We also rank each state to see how this year's ratings compare with past week 33 ratings with a number 1 signifying this is the best week 33 rating since the USDA started the weekly crop condition report in 1986 while a ranking of 30 would mean it has the worst week 33 rating.

The highest rating is in MN where the 800 rating is the second highest ever for this time of year trailing only the 2010 week 33 rating and this is the exact same situation for the Minnesota corn crop.

The states of IA, SD, TN and WI also have very high ratings.

The states faring the worst are IN and OH, each with current ratings of 650 at the 7th and 5th worst crops for week 33 since these ratings began in 1986.

The fact that 13 of the 18 states have week 33 ratings above their 1986-2015 average also attests to the generally good soybean crop that has been forecasted by the USDA.

Looking at a regional breakdown it appears that the Upper Midwest has had the most favorable ratings this year with IA, MN, ND, SD and WI seeing ratings well above their 30 year averages.



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Freeport IL
8/27/2015 | 10:46 PM CDT
US harvested acre soybean yield appears to be about 6% over an August trend line yield. Historically when all years are reviewed, the low, mid-point, average and high percent change to the November estimate are -16%, 2%, 1% and 10% respectfully. When yields are limited to 4% to 8% over August trend line (a 2% spread on each side of the 6% over August Trend Line of the August estimated yield) the results are -7%, -1%, 0% and 10%. This limited range occurred a quarter of the time and saw yield declines from the August yield estimates about two thirds of the time. So there seems to be a bias for high August US soybean yield estimates to decrease in yield to the November estimate. The November CME options on soybeans seems to be giving about a 20% chance (1 in 5 years) of seeing a $9.00 or better November CME futures price at options expiration (October 23). Freeport, IL