Fundamentally Speaking

USDA August Corn & Bean Yield Estimates

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

We are not sure the shock from the USDA crop report has worn off with yields, production and ending stocks for both corn and soybeans well above trade averages, supposedly the largest positive differentials vs. the consensus guesses for both.

There are still a number of naysayers out there feeling that the USDA is far too high on their initial field based crop numbers for both corn and soybeans but time will tell.

In prior posts we have noted that both corn and soybean conditions albeit below year ago levels, especially for soybeans, are actually above a number of longer-term averages.

Furthermore in a recent piece we detailed how July growing conditions with regard to precipitation, temperatures and drought readings were quite good, actually even better than last July and this should have also augured for a decent yield forecast.

The accompanying graphic shows how the USDA August 2015 corn and soybean yield for the top producing states and the U.S. deviated from the 1990-2014 trend on a percent basis.

We see that 13 of the 18 corn states had yields above trend with ND and OH at trend while 15 of the 18 soybean states had above trend projections.

The U.S. corn and soybean yields of 168.8 bushels per acre (bpa) and soybeans at 46.9 bpa are respectively 4.1% and 5.0% above trend.



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