Fundamentally Speaking
Soybean Crop Conditions vs. Final Yields
Similar to what we did with corn, this graphic shows the correlation coefficient between U.S. soybean crop conditions by week and the percent that the final yield deviates from the 1986-2014 trend.
To calculate crop conditions we incorporate our usual ratings system where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
The starting point is week 23 of the year which is usually the second week of June and goes through week 41 which is the second week of October.
Note how the correlation increases as the season goes on with the highest correlation to the deviation from trend yields seen in week 37 that is usually the middle of September when the crop is usually filing the bans inside the pods.
We note that the highest coefficient is for week 41 but the crop has already been made at that point with harvest by that point in the season often close to complete.
Furthermore, since 1986 there have been only ten condition reports issued that late in the season vs. 29 week 37 observations.
(KA)
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