Fundamentally Speaking

January Palmer Drought Readings for Top Corn & Soybean States

One of the highlights of the USDA Ag Outlook sessions was their projection of 2013 U.S. corn yields coming in at 163.6 bushels per acre, the second highest ever and up 40.2 from last year’s drought ravaged crop.

The USDA is assuming normal weather this summer and notes that winter dryness has little correlation with conditions the following growing season and eventual yield outcomes.

In fact, a slide presented at these sessions indicated that the correlation between deviations from average total September-January precipitation and deviation from trend yields is 0.059.

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That may be true but we were curious about light winter rainfall on corn yields in seasons where the subsoil moisture is very dry as evidenced by lower Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) readings.

In a prior piece we did note that since 1960 there have been 30 times when one of the top corn growing states had a PDSI of -4.00 or lower indicating extreme drought the December prior to the growing season and only in 10 instances were corn yields the following year trend or higher.

It will be interesting to see how yields fare this year, for despite some recent storm events, many of the top 21 corn and soybean growing states will have PDSI readings quite low prior to plantings.

The accompanying graphic shows the PDSI readings as of this January, last January, and the lowest January reading anytime between 1960 and 2013.

We start by noting that while the U.S. PDSI reading in January at -5.34 was a slight improvement over the December 2012 reading of -5.37, it is the lowest in the 1960-2013 time period and the lowest national January reading since 1955 indicating the drought in the U.S. is widespread and still quite severe.

In addition to the U.S., the January 2013 PDSI readings for CO and NE are the lowest in the 1960-2013 period with KS and SD also very close to posting their lowest PDSI as much of the High Plains remains in dire drought.

The chart also indicates that almost all states have seen a deteriorating situation from the year ago levels with only LA, MS, NC, and TX having more favorable PDSI readings this January than a year ago.

(KA)

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