Canada Markets

India's 2nd Advance Estimates for Pulse Production

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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India's Ministry of Agriculture's Second Advance Estimates includes an estimate for total pulse production at 24.03 million metric tons for 2018-19, the first year-over-year decline in three years. This volume remains above the previous five-year average of 20.2 mmt (black line), while is below the final bar which represents a 25.95 mmt target for 2018-19. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

India's Ministry of Agriculture has estimated that country's total foodgrains production at 281.37 million metric tons as seen in the Feb. 28 2nd Advance Estimates. This volume is down 3.5 million metric tons from the 4th Advance Estimate for 2017/18, while is below the 290.25 mmt target set by the government for the current crop year.

The country is forecast to produce a record crop of rice in 2018-19 of 115.6 mmt, higher than the government target set for the year, while production of wheat, pulses and oilseeds are estimated to fall short of targeted production.

Production of pulse crops (Kharif and Rabi crops) is forecast to total 24.02 mmt, down from the 25.23 mmt production achieved in 2017-18 and well below the government target of 25.95 mmt. Relative to targeted production, chickpea production is estimated to fall 1.2 mmt short of target, the largest variance. Government officials note hailstorms combined with drought as behind the drop in expected production, but note that huge carryout's from 2017-18 will allow the country to meet domestic needs.

The government's All India Weekly Weather Report shows reason for continued concern, with the Jan. 1 through Feb. 27 period showing precipitation for the period up 22% from the long-term average, although 20 of the country's 36 regions have received precipitation amounts that range from Deficient to No Rain.

Prairie producer bids for green lentils have dipped this week, with large green lentils delivered to Saskatchewan plants quoted at $21.14/cwt, the lowest level traded since early December. This price is down 33% from the same date in 2018, while is on par with new-crop bids reported to range from 21 to 22 cents, providing no incentive to store. Red lentil bids have stabilized at $18.97/cwt, $1.38/cwt higher than reported on the same day of 2018. New-crop is reported to range from $18.10 to $19/cwt.

Dry pea bids have remained steady for a few weeks. Yellow peas are reported at $7.13/bushel, down slightly from December/January highs, while $.50/bu. higher than reported on the same day of 2018. New-crop bids are reported to range from $7.10 to $7.50/bu. Green peas are unchanged at $11.88/bu., the highest level reported since May 2014 and 45% higher than the same date in 2018. New-crop is reported to range from $8.10 to $8.50/bu., ample incentive to sell old crop.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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