Canada Markets

Canada's Spring Wheat Yield and Deviation From Trend

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent Canada's average spring wheat yield since 1980, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The brown line with markers represents the deviation in each year's yield to the previous 20-year trend, as measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Statistics Canada's November estimates point to an average spring wheat yield of 50.5 bushels per acre, the lowest in three years but above the five-year average of 49.3 bpa. The blue bars on the attached chart, as measured against the primary vertical axis, represent this trend.

Manitoba's spring wheat yield is estimated at 59.6 bpa, down 0.2 bpa from 2017 but well above the five-year average of 52.6 bpa. Saskatchewan's average yield was pegged at 45.7 bpa, down 0.7 bpa from 2017 and above the province's five-year average of 44.3 bpa. Alberta's average yield based on November producer surveys is shown at 52.4 bpa, down 3.1 bpa from 2017 and below the province's five-year average of 54.2 bpa.

In relation to the 20-year trend calculated for each province (1998 through 2017), Manitoba's average yield is 12.7% higher than the long-term trend for the province, Saskatchewan's average yield is 1.1% higher than trend while Alberta's average yield for 2018 is calculated at 6.6% below the simple linear trend calculated with Excel.

The overall Canadian average Canadian spring wheat yield, estimated at 50.5 bpa, is down 1.5 bpa, or 2.9%, from 2017, while is above the five-year (2013-2017) average of 49.3 bpa. Canada's record spring wheat yield was reported at 53.1 bpa. This yield fell 0.2% below trend, the first time in three years as measured against the secondary vertical axis, while over the past five years, the average deviation from trend shows actual yield deviation averaging 9% above the respective 20-year trend. This ranged from 27.9% over the 20-year trend in 2013 or 3.1% under trend in 2015.

It is interesting to note that the coefficient calculated in Excel's linear equation has increased for eight consecutive years, from 0.36 in 2010 to a coefficient of 1 in 2018. This represents the annual increase in trendline yield, which is 1 bpa based on the most recent 20-year trend (1998 through 2017).

Another point to be made is that the coefficient calculated in the equation for hard red spring wheat 20-year trend is also calculated with a coefficient of 1, which indicates that there is little difference in the trend for hard red spring when compared to spring wheat data.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(AG)

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