Canada Markets

Week 15 Export Pace and 2018-19 Projections

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The brown bars represent Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's November export forecasts for 2018-19 for selected crops, while the blue bars represent hypothetical targets based on the five-year average week 15 pace. Of the selected crops, cumulative exports of wheat, oats, barley and flax are ahead of the pace needed to reach the current forecasts, based on the average pace of movement. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

This study looks at cumulative exports as of week 15, or the week ending Nov. 11, for selected crops, while making crop-year projections based on the five-year average pace of movement as of week 15.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported week 15 wheat exports (excluding durum) at 453,400 metric tons, the largest weekly exports in five weeks and the second-largest weekly volume reported this crop year. As of week 15, Canada's wheat exports total 5.444 million metric tons (mmt) (excluding durum), up 23.2% from last year and 14% higher than the five-year average. The November supply and demand tables released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecast left the 2018-19 export forecast unchanged at 18 mmt. Over the past five-years, an average of 27.2% of total crop-year exports were realized as of week 15, a pace that would project to crop year exports of 19.980 mmt. This analysis takes into account only the licensed movement. So far, the CGC has reported 111,100 metric tons (mt) of unlicensed exports as of August, while a further 22,714 mt of wheat flour was exported as of August, which places the current pace even further ahead of projections.

Durum exports for week 15 were reported at 74,700 mt, above the previous four-week average. Cumulative exports of durum through licensed facilities total 916,200 mt, down 13.6% from last year and 25.4% below the previous five-year average as of this week. The November supply and demand tables released by AAFC shows the durum export forecast lowered by 300,000 mt to 4.3 mmt, one of only two revisions made to the export forecasts for grains this month. This would put exports at the lowest level achieved since 2012-13. As seen on the attached chart, the current pace still lags the pace needed to reach the revised target, based on the historical pace of movement. Over the past five years, an average of 25.8% of crop-year exports have been realized as of week 15, while this pace would project to crop-year exports of 3.550 mmt for 2018-19.

Week 15 oat exports were reported at 20,100 mt, bringing the cumulative volume to 557,600 mt. This volume is 7% higher than the same week in 2017-18 while 45% higher than the five-year average for this week. AAFC cautiously increased their November forecast for crop-year exports by 100,000 mt to 2.5 mmt this month. Over the past five years, an average of 16.7% of crop year exports were realized as of week 15, a pace that would project to a crop-year forecast of 3.3 mmt. This projection is unachievable, with supplies the limiting factor given that current projections point to a tight carry out of 600,000 mt, while quality may be another factor that limits the export potential.

Week 15 barley exports were reported at 62,100 mt, bringing the cumulative volume of exports to 528,700 mt. This volume is 11.4% higher than reported in 2017-18 over this 15-week period, while is 81.7% higher than the five-year average for this week. AAFC's November estimate was left unchanged at 2.4 mmt. Over the past five years, an average of 11.9% of total crop-year exports were realized as of week 15, a pace that would project to 2018-19 exports to a level that would be unachievable and far outweigh available supplies.

Flax exports for week 15 were reported at 4,400 mt, with the cumulative exports reported at 59,100 mt. This volume is 28% below the volume reported for the same week in 2017-18, while is 2.6% below the five-year average for this period. Over the past five years, an average of 12.5% of crop-year exports were reported through licensed facilities as of week 15, an average pace that would project to crop-year exports of 472,800 mt, well above the current 400,000 mt estimated by AAFC. The current AAFC estimates already point to ending stocks tight at 125,000 mt, which may act to curtail an export push above the current 400,000-mt target. Any reduction in final production levels reported by Statistics Canada on Dec. 6 could place incremental sales further out of reach.

Canola exports for week 15 were reported at 391,700 mt, the largest single-week volume shipped since week 14 of the 2017-18 crop year, or slightly more than a year. As of week 15, the cumulative volume is reported at 2.8381 mmt, down 5.1% from the same period in 2017-18 and up 7.6% from the five-year average for these 15 weeks. Over the past five years, an average of 26.2% of total crop-year exports were reported in week 15 statistics for licensed facilities, a pace that would project to crop-year exports of 10.819 mmt, well below the 11.5 mmt AAFC forecast that was left unchanged this month.

In week 15, the CGC reported 38,900 mt of dry peas exported, with the cumulative exports reported at 653,200 mt through licensed channels. This volume is down 26.2% from the same period in 2017-18 while is 40% below the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 27.8% of crop-year exports were realized as of week 15, a pace that would project to 2018-19 crop-year exports of 2.350 mmt, below the 2.6 mmt AAFC target that was lowered by 200,000 mt in their November supply and demand estimates.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(AG)

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