Canada Markets

Statistics Canada Reports Big July Canola Crush

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Statistics Canada's canola crush data for July leads to a total 2017/18 crush of 9.269 million metric tons, up for the fifth consecutive year, although the year-over-year percent change of .8% is the smallest year-over-year percent change over this period. Crop year crush has been above the 15-year trend in each of the past three crop years. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Despite pressure on crush margins, Statistics Canada reported 838,014 metric tons of seed crushed in July, the second-largest monthly crush ever next to the record 870,998 mt that was crushed in October. This volume is 8.5% higher than the average monthly crush volume reported for the 2017/18 crop year, calculated at 772,435 mt.

Total 2017/18 crush is reported at 9.269 million metric tons, as seen on the attached graphic, the fifth annual increase seen in crush volumes. The year-over-year increase from 2016/17 to 2017/18 is calculated at .8%, which is the smallest year-over-year increase seen in the past five years, following a 10.5% hike realized in the 2016/17.

As seen with the dotted blue line on the attached chart, annual crush has exceeded the 15-year linear trend in each of the past three crop years (2015/16 through 2017/18). This trend projects forward to an annual crush of 9.617 mmt in 2018/19, which would require an average monthly crush of 801,417 mt, which is 3.8% higher than the average monthly crush in 2017/18.

This target would exceed the current AAFC estimate of 9.2 mmt for 2018/19, while the Canola Council of Canada estimates Canadian capacity at 14 plants at about 10 million metric tons.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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