Canada Markets

A Look at Pre-Report Seeded Acre Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the range of pre-report seeded acre estimates for selected crops as compiled by Commodity News Service in Monday's DTN Winnipeg Pit Talk. The marker on the line represents 2017 acres. Once again, Canada's all-wheat crop will rival canola for top acres. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Ahead of Friday's Statistics Canada's release of March seeding intentions, DTN reported pre-report estimates on Monday compiled by Commodity News Service. The range of estimates can be seen on the attached chart, showing Canada's all-wheat and canola acres rivalling each other for Canada's largest crop (first and last bar on the attached chart). At the same time, the range for the other seven crops selected for the survey vary from the range low for flax of 900,000 acres to the range high of 7.8 million acres for soybeans.

The following are just a few observations on the data reported.

While not clear on the chart, the largest move away from any crops are seen in peas and lentils, where in both cases, the highest end of the reported range of expected acres is below year-ago acres seeded. Given the 8.5 million acres of peas and lentils combined in 2017, the range of estimates would suggest a drop from 11.2% to 27%, or 948,000 acres to 2.3 million acres.

The opposite can be said for canola, where the lowest of the range of trade estimates for 2018 acres seeded to canola is higher than year-ago levels. Pre-report estimates suggest that canola acres will total 23.7 million to 24.3 million acres, up 703,000 acres to 1.3 million acres from 2017.

All other crops show results from the survey in a range that encompasses last year's acreage, where for each crop, the mid-point of the range is reasonably close to 2017 seeded acres.

If the range of trade estimates has any bearing, one could conclude that perhaps the greatest uncertainty within the crops reported is seen in Canada's all-wheat, with a range in responses from 20.5 million acres to 24.2 million acres, or 3.7 million acres in total. Despite canola acres expected to reach a similar level, the range of canola responses is just 600,000 acres, close to the smallest range shown, pointing to much greater consensus on the release that lies ahead.

Statistics Canada has already reported winter wheat seeded acres at 1.3757 million acres, down 169,300 acres from the previous year.

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DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks how accurate you think Statistics Canada's April 27 planting intentions will be, given that the data is based on producer surveys conducted in late March. You can share your opinion on this poll, located on the lower-right side of your DTN Canada Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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