Canada Markets

Projected Marketing Year Exports Based on Week 26 Data

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
The blue bars represent projected 2017/18 exports for selected commodities based on the five-year average percent of crop year exports realized as of week 26 (four years for lentils and soybeans). These are plotted against the brown bars that represent current AAFC crop year export forecasts. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Week 26 Canadian Grain Commission data, as of Jan. 28 or the first half of the 2018/19 crop year (all grains but corn and soybeans), shows a total of 21.597 million metric tons of all principal field crops exported through licensed facilities. This represents a volume that is .7% higher than the same period in 2016/17 and 10% higher than the five-year average.

By commodity, licensed wheat exports as of week 26 are reported at 7.872 mmt, 17.4% ahead of the same period in 2016/17 and 4.9% higher than the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 44% of total crop year exports were realized as of week 26, a historical pace that projects total crop year exports of 17.9 mmt this crop year, which compares to the current 17.2 mmt estimate released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. This is represented by the two bars indicated on the attached graphic, which points to the potential for 2017/18 exports to meet or exceed current projections based on the historical pace of movement.

Durum exports, on the other hand, are lagging the pace needed to reach the current export target. As of week 26, durum exports totaled 1.849 mmt, which is 8.6% behind the same period last crop year and 20.8% behind the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 49.7% of total crop year exports were realized as of week 26, which projects to a 2017/18 crop year volume of 3.7 mmt, which is 1 mmt below the current AAFC estimate.

As seen on the attached chart, the historical pace of movement would lead to projections of crop year exports for oats, barley and flax that are higher than current forecasts. Oat exports of 839,500 metric tons, as of week 26, are 23% higher than last year and 43% higher than the five-year average. Barley exports at 890,500 mt are 90.7% higher than last crop year and 46.3% higher than the five-year average. Flax exports at 189,800 mt are 5.4% higher than last year and 3.8% higher than the five-year average.

Projections for canola exports based on historical performance are close to current forecasts. Cumulative week 26 exports are reported at 5.430 mmt, up 2.6% from last year and 22.8% higher than the five-year average. Over the past five-years, an average 47.5% of total crop year exports were realized as of week 26, which projects crop year exports of 11.438 mmt in the current crop year, which is only slightly below the current AAFC forecast of 11.5 mmt.

As of week 26, licensed soybean exports totaled 2.899 mmt, which is 8.8% below the same period last crop year and 14.1% higher than the five-year average. Over the past four years, an average of 63.6% of total crop year exports were realized as of this week, which projects to 2017/18 exports of 4.6 mmt, well below the current 5.6 mmt forecast from AAFC.

Exports of dry peas and lentils have been hit hardest of the major principal field crops in Canada. Week 26 dry pea exports at 1.039 mmt is 48.5% lower than last year and 25.2% below the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 45.6% of total crop year exports were achieved by week 26, a pace that projects to 2017/18 exports of 2.280 mmt, only slightly lower than the current AAFC forecast of 2.4 mmt.

Exports of bulk lentils through licensed facilities over the first 26 weeks are reported at 129,700 mt, which is down 77.6% from the same period in 2016/17 and 68% below the five-year average. Over the past four years, an average of 18.5% of total exports were achieved through licensed bulk channels as of week 26, which projects to crop year exports that are well below the current 1.6 mmt target set by AAFC. This projection could also be viewed as the least reliable, given that the bulk movement is growing as a percentage of total movement but remains low relative to other grains.

**

DTN 360 Poll

What do you think of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's latest estimates indicating that combined dry pea and lentil seeded acres will fall 24% in 2018? You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll which is found at the lower-right of the DTN Canada Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .