Canada Markets

Canadian Hard Red Spring Wheat 10- and 20-Year Yield Trends

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The red marker represents Statistics Canada's national average hard red spring wheat yield at 51.3 bushels/acre, which would be higher than the 10-year trend (black line, 2007-2016) and the 20-year trend (blue line, 1997-2016). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Despite weather challenges on the Prairies over the past summer, which saw hot dry conditions curb the crop's potential in the southern Prairies while some northern areas received excessive amounts of moisture, Canada's hard red spring wheat yield is reported by Statistics Canada to average 51.3 bushels per acre, a record level. This is shown by the red marker on the attached chart, which is just marginally higher than the 51bparealized in 2013. This estimate is based on Statistics Canada's recent final production estimates based on November surveys.

As seen on the attached chart, this yield exceeds the 49.8 bushel/acre 10-year trend line yield (black line) by 1.5 bpa or 3% (2007-2016), while is 3.7 bpa or 7.8% higher than the 47.6 bpa 20-year trend line yield (1997-2016). This is calculated using the linear trendline function in Excel.

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By province, the average yield in Manitoba was estimated at a record 59.2 bpa, which is 30% higher than the previous 10-year average. Hard red spring wheat yield in Saskatchewan was pegged at 46.1 bpa, which matches the record set in 2013. In Alberta, Statistics Canada reported the provincial average at 53.9 bpa, which falls short of the 55.9 bpa realized in 2016.

The forecast function in Excel points to trend line yield in 2018 ranging from 48.6 bpa based on the 20-year trend to 50.2 bpa based on the 10-year trend.

Total estimated hard red spring production of 19.2 million metric tons represents 86.6% of total spring wheat production in Canada in 2017, up 5.6% from the previous crop year and the highest percentage of total spring wheat production seen in Statistics Canada estimates since 2012. An estimated 18% or 3.982 mmt of the total 19.2 mmt of estimated hard red spring production was harvested in Manitoba, up from the five-year average of 16% of total production. An estimated 36% or 7.950 mmt was produced in Saskatchewan, a percentage that is equal to the province's five-year average. An additional estimated 7.220 mmt was harvested in Alberta, which represents 32.6% of total Canadian production, and is also up from the five-year average of 30.5%.

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