Canada Markets

A Look at Week 7 Handling Statistics

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the trend in Canada's canola's stocks-to-use ratio (red line) along with the global rapeseed/canola stocks-to-use ratio (blue line) and the average price realized over the Canadian crop year (Aug-July) based on the ICE Canada continuous chart. The yellow bar indicates the year-to-date average price realized in the Aug. 1 through Sept. 19 period. (DTN graphic by Scott Kemper)

The earlier-than-normal harvest over much of the Prairies has had a notable impact on country elevator handing data. On Thursday, Saskatchewan Agriculture reported that the province's crop was 75% harvested, which compares to the five-year average of 58%.

As of week 7, or the week ending Sept. 17, producers had delivered a total of 6.563 million metric tons of all grains into the primary elevator system, 6.3% higher than seen in the same period of 2016/17 and 6.3% higher than the five-year average.

By commodity, deliveries of wheat (excluding durum) are 380,000 metric tons higher than the same period in 2016/17, although are 2.5% lower than the five-year average. Deliveries of durum are 96,900 mt higher than the same period in 2016/17 while are 2.1% higher than the five-year average year-to-date. Deliveries of oats into primary elevators are reported at 369,800 mt, 103,300 mt higher than the same period last year and 36.4% higher than the five-year average for this period. Near-record deliveries of canola in recent weeks led to total deliveries of 1.743 mmt, the cash crop of choice, which is 15.9% higher than the five-year average.

By province, total deliveries of all grains into Manitoba and Alberta are higher than the same period last year, while deliveries into Saskatchewan lag last year's pace slightly. Total volumes delivered into Manitoba elevators are 24.3% higher than the five-year average, Saskatchewan deliveries are 3.2% higher than the five-year average and deliveries into Alberta elevators are .8% higher than the five-year average. Producer deliveries of all grains in week 7 are reported at 1.169 mmt, down for the second straight week and slightly higher than the previous four-week average.

Primary elevator shipments of all grains are 6.2% higher than seen in 2016/17 as of week 7 and 3.2% higher than the five-year average. Week 7 shipments were reported at 978,900 mt for all grains, the highest weekly volume this crop year and 21.7% higher than the previous four-week average.

Licensed prairie elevator stocks are reported at 3.941 mmt, up for the fourth consecutive week. This volume is 33.7% higher than the same week last year and 31.8% higher than the previous five-year average. This volume ties up 54% of total prairie storage space, while accounting for 83% of the estimated system working capacity as utilized by the Grain Monitor. By province, total grain stocks represent 53-55% of total capacity in each province, while as a percentage of estimated working capacity, stocks in Saskatchewan point to the tightest situation at 84%.

Receipts at the western terminals, which includes Prince Rupert and Vancouver on the west coast along with Thunder Bay, are 1.7% below the same period last year and 2% below the five-year average. The Ag Transport Coalition's Weekly Performance Update for week 6 shows only 75% of hopper cars ordered for the week actually suppled, for an overall shortfall of 2,500 cars. Year-to-date unfulfilled shipper demand, which includes outstanding orders, rejected cars, railway cancellations, shortened supply and denied orders shows 2,182 cars for CN and 1068 cars for CP. By shipping corridor, the largest share of this unfulfilled demand is destined for Vancouver, with Thunder Bay the next in line.

As seen on the last set of bars on the attached charts, shipments or exports from terminal elevators are 7.8% higher than the same period last year but 2.8% behind the five-year average. Exports of wheat, durum, oats and barley are well above year-ago volumes while exports of canola and dry peas are lagging year-ago volumes.

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DTN 360 Poll

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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