Canada Markets

Canola's 20-year trend

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart represents the 20-year trend for Canadian canola yields (1996-2015) along with the record yield of 42.3 bushels per acre estimated by Statistics Canada for 2016. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Last week's Statistics Canada report indicated an average canola yield of 42.3 bushels/acre across the country, while total production was estimated at 18.4 million metric tons. This was lower than the average of pre-report estimates of 18.8 mmt while the range of estimates was from 18 mmt to 19.6 mmt as indicated in a Reuters survey and reported by Producer.com. One trade participant recently contacted is sticking to his beliefs that a 20-mmt crop was produced in 2016, which would suggest that future revisions could add significant volume to estimated production.

As seen on the attached graphic, the final estimated yield of 42.3 bushels per acre was the third time in four years that the estimated yield was above the long-term trend, calculated to be approximately 4.5 bpa higher than the trend calculated by Excel. This yield would be 19.2% higher than the five-year average while would top the previous record of 40.6 bpa estimated for 2013's crop.

The uncertainty lies with harvested acres, with the survey conducted during a period when harvest remained ongoing, or perhaps worse, at a stand-still. Estimated harvested acres reported in December were 450,000 acres less than estimated in September given the model-based assessment, which would add an additional 432,000 mt based on Statistics Canada's estimated yield. As well, given the uncertainty faced, harvested acres were estimated at 94.3% of seeded acres, as compared to the five-year average of 99.2%. The difference represents close to one million metric tons and leaves a great deal of room for a future revision.

Given the most recent estimates, the 20-year (1997 to 2016) trend projected forward would suggest a trend line yield of 39.8 bpa for 2017.

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DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what crop you believe will see the largest future revisions given this week's Statistics Canada production estimates report. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll which is found at the lower-right side of your DTN Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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